At Last, Ethereum’s Local Top?

Corrections In Price vs Time

Last month, see here, we found by using the Elliott Wave Principle (EWP) that Ethereum’s (ETHUSD )

“… Since corrections are often complex price patterns with lots of dips and rips (A, B, and C-waves), we must see a move below $2140 (blue-dotted horizontal line) to give further confirmation the local top we anticipate is in place. …. Since ETHUSD reached higher ($2430 vs. $2136), we can also move the grey W-ii ideal target zone to $1900+/-50.”

Fast forward, and ETHUSD has barely moved ($2200 then vs. $2230 now) while essentially being stuck between $2100-2400. This pattern suggests ETHUSD is correcting rather in time than price. See Figure 1 below.

Figure 1. The daily resolution candlestick chart of ETH with several technical indicators

Below $2140 Can Still Target $1950+/-50

Thus, indeed, “corrections are often complex price patterns with lots of dips and rips (A, B, and C-waves),” as the price action since the December 9 high has been of an “overlapping go nowhere” nature. However, although we saw an intra-day move below $2140 on Wednesday, we still haven’t seen a daily close below it, the blue-dotted horizontal line. Moreover, ETHUSD is still above its rising (blue) 50-day simple moving average (50d SMA) since the rally from the October 2023 low started. Thus, we continue to have our parameters in place.

1. A daily close below the 50d SMA (currently at $2199 and rising) followed by,
2. A daily close below $2135.

However, if ETHUSD fails to do this, and instead we see a daily close above $2400 and especially $2450 (the December 28, 2023 spike high labeled as orange W-b) then the grey W-iii to at least $3500 should be considered as underway.

Given the weak technical indicators (dotted red arrows), we prefer to look lower, but Ethereum’s price will have to confirm our thesis. Once the ideal grey W-ii target zone is attained, Ethereum can launch into its “3^rd of a 3^rd wave” and reach new All-time Highs similar to what we described for Bitcoin in our New Year’s Special. In the long term, the cryptocurrency must stay above the June 2022 low ($883), with a severe warning to the Bulls below the October 12, 2023 low at $1521, to allow this Bullish path to unfold.