AUD/USD, NZD/USD, and USD/JPY Analysis: Tariff Volatility, Risk Sentiment, and Key Technical Setups

How US-China Tariffs and Global Risk Trends Are Shaping AUD/USD

The escalating US-China trade war puts strong pressure on AUD/USD. Australia relies heavily on exports to China, so any slowdown in Chinese demand hits the Australian Dollar. As China restricts rare earth exports and tensions rise, risk sentiment worsens. Investors pull away from riskier currencies and seek safe havens. The volatility in US bond markets adds more uncertainty, making AUD/USD sensitive to global risk trends. The Move index in the chart below shows it has hit around 140 on trade tensions. If China uses US Treasuries as leverage, it could further unsettle markets.

However, tariff exemptions and market relief have pushed AUD/USD near the pivotal area of $0.64–$0.6450. The US suspended all tariffs above 10% for countries except China, easing global fears of a broader trade war. As a result, investors regained confidence and moved back into risk assets like the Australian Dollar.

Despite rising US Treasury yields, the US dollar has lost its safe-haven appeal due to erratic US policies and fears of long-term economic damage. Moreover, if China’s economy slows, markets expect Beijing to introduce more stimulus. This often lifts commodity demand, benefiting Australia as a key exporter of raw materials to China. Such expectations can support the AUD even during periods of trade tension.

AUD/USD remains sensitive to trade news and economic data. Ongoing US-China tariff uncertainty weighs heavily on Australia’s export outlook. Although US-EU trade talks show progress, sector-specific tariffs threaten global trade flows. Investors now focus on the upcoming US Retail Sales and Australia’s job report. These events will likely shape the near-term direction for AUD/USD.

Yen Regains Safe-Haven Status as US Dollar Sentiment Shifts

The US dollar has weakened against the yen despite rising US Treasury yields. This shift reflects fears of capital flight triggered by Trump’s unpredictable tariff policies. Investors now treat the US dollar as a risk asset, while the yen has regained its safe-haven appeal. As a result, political headlines and risk sentiment drive the pair more than economic data.

USD/JPY remains under pressure, and rallies are short-lived if broader trade tensions stay unresolved. Markets remain wary of Trump’s inconsistent policy shifts, which create uncertainty and reduce investor confidence in the dollar.

AUD/USD Technical Analysis – Trump Volatility

The 4-hour chart of AUD/USD shows strong volatility as the pair trades within a broadening wedge pattern. This volatility arises from trade uncertainties linked to China. The pair has rebounded from the long-term support region and moved back toward the resistance at $0.64. A break above $0.6450-$0.65 is needed to push the pair toward higher levels.

NZD/USD Technical Analysis – Trump Volatility

The 4-hour chart of NZD/USD also shows strong volatility as the pair attempts to break $0.5870. A break above this level has opened the door for higher prices. The pair rebounds from the major long-term support region between $0.55 and $0.56, suggesting that NZD/USD will likely remain upward. The breakout above $0.5870 indicates that AUD/USD may follow NZD/USD’s bullish momentum due to their strong correlation.

USD/JPY Technical Analysis – Descending Broadening Wedge

The 4-hour chart for USD/JPY shows that the pair is trading within a descending broadening wedge pattern. A break above $149.50 could push the pair to higher levels, while strong short-term support remains at the $141 level.