AUD/USD Forex Technical Analysis – July 7, 2017 Forecast

The AUD/USD is trading slightly higher just hours ahead of the release of the U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls report at 1230 GMT. For a second session, the Forex pair is trading inside Wednesday wide range. This indicates investor indecision and impending volatility.

A stronger-than-expected NFP report should help drive up U.S. Treasury yields because it will help support the Fed’s case for another rate hike later in the year. This will be bearish for the AUD/USD.

A weaker-than-expected NFP report will raise doubts about a Fed rate hike later in the year because it will suggest the labor market is leveling off. Treasury yields could fall on the news. This will be bullish for the AUD/USD.

 

Technical Analysis

The main trend is up according to the daily swing chart. However, momentum has been trending lower since the .7712 main top on June 30.

A trade through .7571 will signal a resumption of the downtrend.

The main range is .7372 to .7712. If the selling pressure resumes, then look for a break into .7542 to .7502. Since the main trend is up, we could see buyers show up on a test of this zone.

The short-term range is .7712 to .7571. This is the primary upside target. Aggressive counter-trend sellers are going to try to stop the rally inside this zone in an effort to form a secondary lower top. Counter-trend buyers are going to try to take out this zone in an effort to make .7571 a new main bottom.

Forecast

Based on the current price at .7596, the first two upside targets are Gann angles at .7612 and .7622. Overcoming .7622 could lead to a test of a cluster of levels at .7641, .7658 and .7662.

If the selling resumes and it’s strong enough to take out .7571, then look for a break into .7542. If buyers don’t come in on a test of this level then look for an acceleration into .7502 and .7497.