XRP News Today: BlackRock ETF Rumors and SEC Silence Shape XRP’s Outlook; BTC at $83k

SEC vs. Ripple Case: No Confirmation of Appeal Withdrawal

On April 4, investor attention turned to the SEC as markets awaited updates following the agency’s closed meeting a day earlier. Speculation intensified about the SEC formally withdrawing its appeal against the Programmatic Sales of XRP ruling.

Despite the speculation, the SEC remained silent on its appeal plans, leaving XRP holders in limbo for another week. Ripple CEO Brad Garlinghouse had previously announced the SEC’s appeal withdrawal on March 19. Since then, XRP has fallen 28%, retreating sharply from its March 19 high of $2.5925. Ripple also announced a settlement with the SEC on Judge Torres’ Final Judgment and its cross-appeal withdrawal.

Yet, the SEC has not confirmed any settlement terms with Ripple. Ripple Chief Legal Officer Stuart Alderoty previously shared proposed settlement terms, including:

• Lower the final penalty from $150 million to $50 million.
• Remove the injunction prohibiting XRP sales to US institutional investors.

SEC Guidance Signals Regulatory Shift

While quiet on the Ripple case, the SEC has provided broader regulatory relief. Journalist and CryptoAmerica host Eleanor Terrett commented on the latest crypto regulatory changes, stating:

“The SEC providing guidance on digital assets is a positive step and a significant improvement compared to previous years. However, passing market structure legislation in Congress will ultimately provide the most important guidance for the industry in terms of regulatory clarity.”

Terrett outlined the importance of legislation over guidance, stating:

“Guidance is helpful for investors because it provides insight into the general thinking of the Corporation Finance staff. However, as we saw with SAB 121, guidance (and rulemaking) can be repealed or amended under a different administration. In contrast, when Congress passes laws, those rules are set in stone and much harder to change as it would require a lengthy legislative process.”

For XRP investors, regulatory clarity and the conclusion of non-enforcement actions from the SEC could be critical to mainstream adoption.

XRP-Spot ETF Market: A Key Driver for Outlook

Despite limited progress on the legal front, regulatory momentum continues. Clear rules of the road would pave the way for an XRP-spot ETF market, another key step in XRP’s evolution toward commodity status.

Currently, 18 XRP ETF applications await SEC review. BlackRock (BLK) remains a notable absentee. However, according to AP Abacus, filings may be imminent. Andrew, an analyst at the firm, cited sources discussing potential BlackRock SOL and XRP filings, stating:

“Crypto floodgates have opened, 2025 filings expected. We may not be the first, but we will give clients choices. If nothing else, both will be included in crypto asset class products. Crypto assets are an unprecedented growth opportunity.”

A BlackRock ETF will likely be crucial to the success of an XRP-spot ETF market. Since launching its BTC-spot ETF on January 11, 2024, iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) has attracted total net inflows of $39,910 million. Without BlackRock’s participation, net outflows could have reached $3,741 million.

XRP Price Outlook: Legal and ETF Catalysts

On Friday, April 4, XRP rallied 3.21%, adding to Thursday’s 1.96% gain, closing at $2.1288. The token outperformed the broader market, which rose 0.85%, taking the total crypto market cap to $2.65 trillion.

Near-term drivers for XRP include:

• SEC vs. Ripple Court Filings: An appeal withdrawal, resolution of Ripple’s cross-appeal, or injunction vacation could send XRP toward its record high of $3.5505.
• XRP-Spot ETF Prospects: A green light could boost institutional demand. Delays, however, may restrain upside potential.
• Macroeconomic risks: Tariff updates, the US CPI report, and Fed forward guidance. A worsening trade outlook or rising recession fears could push XRP toward $1.7938. Conversely, easing concerns could trigger a rebound toward $3.00.

Explore our XRP forecast dashboard here.

Bitcoin Hovers Below $85k Amid Trade Tensions

XRP’s gains coincided with bitcoin (BTC) trending higher for the second consecutive session. An upbeat US Jobs Report, tariff developments, Fed Chair Powell’s signal of policy status quo, and rising fears of a global economic recession fueled price volatility.

On April 4, BTC reacted positively to the US Jobs Report, rising to $84,573 before easing back. Rising fears of a tariff-triggered US recession capped BTC’s upside.

US BTC-Spot ETF Market Extends Outflows

The US-BTC spot ETF market faced another day of net outflows on April 4, reflecting institutional investor concerns about tariffs and the economic outlook. According to Farside Investors:

• Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC) had net outflows of $25.2 million.
• ARK 21Shares Bitcoin ETF (ARKB) saw net outflows of $21.8 million.
• Bitwise Bitcoin ETF (BITB) recorded net outflows of $17.9 million.

Excluding flows from BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT), net outflows totaled $64.9 million on April 4. Notably, the US BTC-spot ETF market has seen net outflows in five of the last six sessions.

Market intelligence platform Santiment remarked on bitcoin’s resilience to tariff risks:

“China has imposed 34% reciprocal tariffs on US goods, and stock markets have now dropped to 11-month lows. However, Bitcoin and altcoins have actually stayed relatively unharmed. The crowd has shown a slight bearish bias ever since Trump’s tariffs were announced, but the resilience being shown by cryptocurrencies toward this news remains a positive sign for if & when global resolutions are met.”

BTC has gained 1.68% this week, while the Nasdaq Composite Index tumbled 10.02% in the week ending April 4.

BTC Price Outlook: Bearish and Bullish Scenarios

On April 4, BTC rose 0.76%, following Thursday’s 0.80% gain to close at $83,828.

BTC scenarios include:

• Bearish Scenario: Escalating trade tensions, hot US CPI data, a hawkish Fed, ETF outflows, or opposition to the Bitcoin Act could drag BTC toward $70,000.
• Bullish Scenario: Softer US inflation data, a dovish Fed, tariff de-escalation, bipartisan crypto support, and sustained ETF inflows could lift BTC toward $109,312.

Market Outlook: Themes to Watch

Key themes influencing the crypto market direction include:

• Developments in the SEC vs. Ripple case.
• Tariff headlines and trade sentiment.
• Legislative progress on the Bitcoin Act.
• The US CPI Report (April 10).
• BTC-spot ETF flows and investor positioning.

While recent SEC steps may ease short-term uncertainty, long-term sentiment will depend on more definitive regulatory clarity. See what analysts say cryptos need to hit record highs.