U.S. Jobless Claims Tick Up to 222K as Durable Goods Surge 9.2% on Transport Strength

Jobless Claims Rise Slightly; Durable Goods Boosted by Transport

Initial claims for unemployment insurance edged up modestly last week, underscoring a labor market that remains broadly resilient even as pockets of industry-specific layoffs emerge. Meanwhile, durable goods orders posted a strong headline gain, driven almost entirely by transportation, raising questions about the depth of industrial demand.

Initial Claims Tick Higher, But Core Indicators Remain Stable

For the week ending April 19, seasonally adjusted initial jobless claims rose by 6,000 to 222,000, according to the U.S. Department of Labor. The prior week’s level was revised up slightly to 216,000. The four-week moving average, which smooths short-term volatility, declined by 750 to 220,250—suggesting overall stability in labor market conditions. The insured unemployment rate remained unchanged at 1.2%, while the total number of continuing claims decreased by 37,000 to 1.84 million.

Unadjusted Claims Reflect Regional and Sector Pressures

Unadjusted data showed a more pronounced weekly drop, with claims falling 5.1% to 209,782—less than the 7.6% decline seasonal models had projected. Layoffs were concentrated in manufacturing and construction-heavy states like Kentucky (+4,292), Missouri (+1,974), and Pennsylvania (+1,858), suggesting localized labor softness. Conversely, California, Tennessee, and Oregon saw sharp declines in claims, helping balance the national picture.

Durable Goods Surge Led by Transportation

March’s new orders for durable goods rose by 9.2%, or $26.6 billion, to $315.7 billion, the third consecutive monthly increase. However, excluding transportation, new orders were flat, highlighting a narrow driver behind the gain. Transportation equipment orders soared 27.0% to $124.6 billion, reflecting strength in the commercial aviation and automotive sectors. Orders excluding defense rose 10.4%, indicating robust private-sector investment appetite.

Trader Implications: Mixed Signals for Macro Outlook

While durable goods data shows headline strength, the underlying flat trend excluding transportation warrants caution. Meanwhile, steady insured unemployment and muted initial claims growth signal continued labor market strength, though sector-specific risks are emerging. Traders should weigh these counterbalancing signals carefully, especially with recent industrial momentum concentrated in a single segment.

Market Forecast: Neutral to Cautiously Bullish

The short-term outlook is neutral to cautiously bullish, supported by a stable jobs market and solid private-sector investment in select industries. However, the concentration of durable goods gains in transportation and regional job losses in manufacturing suggest traders should remain selective in their exposure, particularly within cyclical sectors.