US Dollar Forecast: DXY Finds Floor at 99.10 Pivot, Faces Headwinds from Fed and Tariffs

Dollar Stabilizes Above Pivot as Trade Uncertainty Limits Upside

The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) drifted lower on Thursday, paring back midweek gains, but remained anchored above the key 99.10 pivot. While the broader outlook is pressured by global trade uncertainty and political noise, technical support near this level suggests the dollar may be attempting to carve out a near-term base after testing multi-year lows earlier in the week.

At 14:51 GMT, the U.S. Dollar Index is trading 99.394, down 0.386 or -0.39%.

Dollar Holds Technical Ground Above Key Support

Technically, DXY is holding above 99.10—the midpoint of the minor range between 100.276 and 97.921. The move above this level on Wednesday marked a bullish shift in structure, with 99.10 now acting as a support floor.

Resistance stands at 100.276, with a confirmed breakout opening the door to a retest of 101.302. Should 99.10 fail, downside momentum could accelerate toward major support at 97.685.

Durable Goods Beat Estimates, But Yields and FX Ignore It

On the data front, U.S. durable goods orders surged 9.2% in March, blowing past forecasts of a 1.6% increase. However, the outsized gain—driven largely by defense and transportation sectors—did little to stir market confidence. Treasury yields dipped, and the dollar weakened, suggesting traders remain focused on broader macro risks rather than isolated data beats.

Housing Data Reinforces Economic Fragility

Real estate figures added to concerns about the underlying economy. March home sales fell 5.9% month-over-month to an annualized pace of 4.02 million, the lowest since 2009. A nearly 20% jump in listings failed to offset weak demand as high mortgage rates continue to weigh on affordability. While home prices held near record levels, the annual growth rate slowed to 2.7%, the weakest since last summer.

Trade and Fed Messaging Drive Investor Sentiment

Investor appetite for the dollar remains muted, with sentiment capped by stalled U.S.-China negotiations and political friction over Fed independence.

President Trump’s earlier attacks on Fed Chair Jerome Powell raised concerns about policy credibility, though his assurance not to dismiss Powell temporarily calmed markets. Still, the lack of clarity on trade and tariffs continues to cloud the outlook, with China firmly rejecting talks unless all unilateral U.S. measures are lifted.

Market Forecast: Dollar Caught Between Support and Resistance

With the dollar stabilizing above 99.10, near-term downside risk is contained. However, a convincing break above 100.276 is needed to reassert bullish control. In the absence of policy clarity or new economic catalysts, traders should expect rangebound price action.

Should fundamentals deteriorate further, a return to the 97.685 level is back in play. Until then, DXY remains tactically supported, but fundamentally fragile.

More Information in our Economic Calendar.