Australian Dollar Forecast: AUD/USD Eyes Gains as PBoC Decision Looms

The People’s Bank of China and the Aussie Dollar

On Friday, September 20, the People’s Bank of China will be in the spotlight, possibly impacting the AUD/USD pair.

Economists expect the PBoC to keep the 1-year and 5-year loan prime rates (LPR) at 3.35% and 3.8%, respectively. However, an unexpected cut to the LPRs could increase borrowing, drive demand, and fuel consumption in China. An improving demand environment could bolster the Aussie economy and boost Aussie dollar demand.

One-third of Australia’s exports are bound for China. With a trade-to-GDP ratio above 50% and 20% of the Aussie workforce in trade-related jobs, increased demand from China would improve trade terms and the Aussie labor market.

Recent economic indicators from China challenged Beijing’s 5% growth target for 2024. Policy measures aimed at bolstering the Chinese economy and fueling consumption could push the AUD/USD toward $0.70.

Last weekend, data from China revealed weaker consumer spending, a sharper decline in house prices, and a higher unemployment rate.

Expert Views on China’s Economy and Stimulus

Reacting to Saturday’s economic indicators from China, AMP Head of Investment Strategy and Chief Economist Shane Oliver stated,

“Continuing soft Chinese (data) for Aug with grth in IP, retail sales & inv all slowing slightly more than exp & a continuing fall in property prices, inv & sales. Growth this yr looking more like ~4.5%. More policy stimulus is needed but likely to remain incremental.”

Fed Commentary in the Spotlight

Later in the Friday session, investors should turn their attention to Fed commentary following Wednesday’s Fed rate cut. Philly Fed President Patrick Harker is on the calendar to speak. Insights into the Fed rate path, the US labor market, and the economic outlook could influence US dollar demand. In August, Harker expected 2 to 3 interest rate cuts in 2024.

On Wednesday, the Fed cut interest rates by 50 basis points and projected a soft US economic landing. Concerns about the economic outlook and support for further aggressive Fed rate cuts could push the AUD/USD toward $0.70.

Short-Term Forecast for AUD/USD

Near-term AUD/USD trends will likely depend on the PBoC decision and central bank commentary. An unexpected cut to the LPRs could boost Aussie dollar demand. However, Fed commentary also needs consideration as the focus shifts to the November Fed interest rate decision. Expectations of further stimulus from Beijing and a dovish Fed rate path remain tailwinds for the AUD/USD.

Investors should monitor central bank communications closely, which will influence AUD/USD trends. Monitor the real-time data, news updates, and expert commentary to adjust your trading strategies.

AUD/USD Technical Analysis

Daily Chart

The AUD/USD holds well above the 50-day and 200-day EMAs, affirming bullish price signals.

A return to $0.68500 could support a move toward the $0.69 level. Furthermore, a break above $0.69 may give the bulls a run at $0.70.

The PBoC LPR decision and Fed commentary require consideration.

Conversely, a drop below the $0.68006 support level could signal a fall toward $0.67500. A break below $0.67500 may give the bears a run at the $0.67050 support level.

With a 14-period Daily RSI reading of 63.00, the Aussie dollar could return to the $0.69 level before entering overbought territory.