Bitcoin (BTC) Hits $86K After Tariff News Lifts Risk Appetite, Eyes $90K

Bitcoin Hits $86k on US-China Trade Developments

Bitcoin (BTC) gained 2.41% on Saturday, April 12, following Friday’s 4.75% rally to close at $85,379.

US-China trade developments lifted demand for BTC and the broader crypto market. CN Wire reported on Saturday, April 12, a major shift in the US-China trade war:

“According to a notice posted late on Friday night by Customs and Border Patrol, which is responsible for collecting tariffs, smartphones, along with routers and selected computers and laptops, would be exempt from reciprocal tariffs, which include the 125% levies Donald Trump has imposed on Chinese imports.”

CN Wire added:

“It was not immediately clear if smartphones imported from China would still be hit by a 20% levy that was not part of the reciprocal tariffs that Trump started unveiling against China on April 2.”

Geiger Capital, providing insights into markets, economics, and politics, noted that smartphones and computers are China’s largest exports to the US.

The easing of tariffs may soften the impact on import prices and inflation, improving the chances of a June Fed rate cut. A more dovish Fed stance could boost risk appetite.

Santiment, a market intelligence platform, commented:

“Trump’s weekend tariff exemptions have led to an instant crypto market rise. The tech sector is much less impacted by high import costs compared to 24 hours ago, and Bitcoin has already hit a high of $85.9K.”

US BTC-Spot ETF Market Faces Outflows

Ahead of the weekend’s developments, an intensifying US-China trade war continued to influence BTC-spot ETF price trends. According to Farside Investors, weekly flow data for the week ending April 11 showed:

• iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) had net outflows of $342.6 million, its largest since launch.
• Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC) posted net outflows of $160.9 million.
• Fidelity Wise Origin Bitcoin Fund (FBTC) recorded net outflows of $74.6 million.
• Meanwhile, Grayscale Bitcoin Mini Trust (BTC) bucked the trend, with inflows of $2.4 million.

The US BTC-spot ETF market registered total net outflows of $707.9 million, adding to the previous week’s outflows of $165 million. However, outflows eased to $1 million on April 11, suggesting potential stabilization.

ETF flows remain a vital gauge of BTC’s supply-demand dynamics and price momentum.

BTC Price Outlook: Key Drivers

BTC’s near-term path depends on trade developments, macroeconomic indicators, the progress of the Bitcoin Act, and ETF flows.

• Bullish Scenario: Easing global trade tensions, upbeat US economic data, progress on the Bitcoin Act, and renewed ETF inflows may drive BTC toward its record high of $90,000.
• Bearish Scenario: An escalation in the global trade war, weak US data, resistance to the Bitcoin Act, and continued ETF outflows could pull BTC toward the $70,000 level.

For deeper insights on macro data, regulatory developments, and ETF market flows, follow our analysis and forecasts here to manage crypto risks.

Technical Analysis

Bitcoin Analysis

Despite gains, BTC continues trading below the 50-day and 200-day Exponential Moving Averages (EMA), sending bearish price signals.

A break above the EMAs and the $86,263 resistance level could enable the bulls to target the $90,742 resistance level. A decisive move above $90,742 would bring the crucial $100,000 level into play.

On the downside, a drop below $85,000 could test support at $80,000. A fall through $80,000 might expose the March 11 low of $76,642.

Stay ahead of market trends by accessing real-time BTC price data and technical indicators here.

Ethereum Analysis

Meanwhile, ETH continues to struggle, trading below the 50-day and 200-day EMAs, underscoring its bearish bias.

An ETH breakout above $1,750 could signal a move toward $2,000 and the 50-day EMA. A push beyond the 50-day EMA may bring the $2,308 resistance level into play.

ETH-spot ETF flows and trade developments remain crucial for near-term price trends.

Conversely, if ETH breaks below $1,500, the April 9 low of $1,386 would likely be the next key support level.

Final Thoughts

BTC’s path to $100,000 remains challenged by US-China trade uncertainties, recession risks, Fed policy uncertainty, and pending legislation. However, ETF flows, US economic data, and regulatory clarity will remain central to dictating market sentiment.

Stay ahead of market trends with real-time BTC price data and expert insights. Follow our live updates on BTC price movements here.