Bitcoin (BTC) Holds $90K Amid BlackRock ETF Inflows and Trump Campaign Tailwinds

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Updated: Nov 17, 2024, 06:35 GMT+00:00

Key Points:

BTC holds steady at $90K despite a 0.67% drop; ETF flows and Trump’s crypto strategy influence market sentiment.
US BTC-spot ETF inflows hit $1.81B last week, with iShares Bitcoin Trust leading gains at $2.02B.
Speculation on SEC Chair Gensler’s resignation raises hopes for pro-crypto policies, boosting BTC demand outlook.

BTC Holds Firm at $90,000 Despite Saturday Dip

On Saturday, November 16, BTC dropped by 0.67%, partially reversing a 3.90% gain from Friday, closing at $90,119. Significantly, BTC underperformed the broader crypto market, which increased by 0.81% to a total market cap of $2.980 trillion.

US BTC-Spot ETF Market Outflows Affect Price Trends

Saturday’s BTC pullback likely stemmed from Friday’s US BTC-spot ETF market outflows. On Friday, November 15, the US BTC-spot ETF market reported net outflows of $239.6 million, extending the outflow streak to two sessions.

Despite two consecutive days of outflows, the US BTC-spot ETF market had net inflows of $1,810.4 million in the week ending November 15. According to Farside Investors:

iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) reported net inflows of $2,022.5 million in the week ending November 15. (Previous week: +$1,251.1 million).
Grayscale Bitcoin Mini Trust had net inflows of $52.3 million. (Previous week: +$39.7 million.
Fidelity Wise Origin Bitcoin Fund (FBTC) saw net inflows of $4.1 million on Wednesday. (Previous Week: +$295.4 million).
However, Bitwise Bitcoin ETF (BITB) and ARK 21Shares Bitcoin ETF (ARKB) reported net outflows of $66.3 million and $152.7 million, respectively.

ETF Store President Nate Geraci noted the resilience of IBIT, stating,

“Now 7 straight days of inflows for iShares Bitcoin ETF (IBIT)… Nearly $3.4 billion. For context, that $3.4bil exceeds the *total lifetime* inflows for every other 2024 ETF launch except FBTC. That’s out of 615 new ETFs. IBIT now approaching $30bil in total inflows.”

Significantly, the US BTC-spot ETF market reported net weekly inflows as investors continued to consider Trump’s campaign pledges.

Trump’s Pro-BTC Policies Add Tailwinds

Trump’s election victory and pledge to make BTC a US strategic reserve remains a BTC tailwind. Significantly, Trump also vowed to make the US government a BTC HODLER, mitigating oversupply risk. The US government holds 208,109 BTC, equivalent to $18.87 billion. Trump’s pledge to increase the government’s BTC holdings could impact supply, supporting a BTC break above $100,000.

Another campaign promise was to fire SEC Chair Gary Gensler on day one in office. A pro-crypto SEC Chair could further fuel demand for BTC and the broader crypto market. Speculation has intensified that SEC Chair Gensler will resign as SEC Chair and not complete the remainder of his term as an SEC Commissioner.

The expectations for a pro-crypto SEC Chair have led to ETF issuers filing for crypto basket ETFs, widening investor access to BTC and the broader market.

On Friday, Bloomberg Intelligence Senior ETF Analyst Eric Balchunas commented on crypto basket ETF filings, saying,

“Bitwise following Grayscale looking to list a crypto basket ETF. This one has 10 cryptos. Makes sense to try IMO bc with The Genzinator gone and a Trump SEC Chair in anything’s poss now altho far from a slam dunk. Need more intel bf giving odds.”

Technical Analysis

Bitcoin Analysis

Despite Saturday’s pullback, BTC remains well above the 50-day and 200-day EMAs, affirming bullish price signals.

Breaking above November 13’s high of $93,163 could enable the bulls to target $95,000. Furthermore, a breakout from $95,000 would bring $100,000 into play.

Investors should monitor trends in US BTC-spot ETF market flows alongside updates on SEC leadership changes and regulatory policies.

Conversely, a BTC drop below $90,000 could signal a fall through $87,500. A break below $87,500 may bring $85,000 into play.

With a 76.10 14-day RSI reading, BTC sits in overbought territory. Selling pressure could intensify at $93,163.

BTC Daily Chart sends bullish price signals.

BTCUSD Daily Chart 171124

Ethereum Analysis

ETH sits above the 50-day and 200-day EMAs, affirming bullish price signals.

An ETH breakout from the $3,244 resistance level could bring the $3,480 resistance level into play. Furthermore, a break above the $3,480 resistance level may enable the bulls to target the $3,835 resistance level.

US ETH-spot ETF market-related updates also require consideration.

Conversely, an ETH break below the $3,033 support level may allow the bears to target $2,800 and the 200-day EMA.

The 14-period Daily RSI reading, 62.12, indicates an ETH move above the $3,244 resistance level before entering overbought territory.

ETH Daily Chart sends bullish price signals.

ETHUSD Daily Chart 171124

Dive deeper into the implications of crypto regulatory changes on price action. Follow our analysis and forecasts to manage crypto-related risks.

About the Author

Bob Masonauthor

With over 20 years of experience in the finance industry, Bob has been managing regional teams across Europe and Asia and focusing on analytics across both corporate and financial institutions. Currently he is covering developments relating to the financial markets, including currencies, commodities, alternative asset classes, and global equities.