Bitcoin (BTC) Hovers Below $85K as ETF Outflows Extend to Five Weeks

Bitcoin Hovers Below $85K Amid BTC-Spot ETF Outflows

On Saturday, March 15, bitcoin (BTC) rose 0.47%, consolidating Friday’s 3.53% gain to close at $84,399. President Trump’s tariffs fueled market volatility, sending BTC to a March 11 low of $76,642 before rebounding.

Investor sentiment toward the US administration’s Strategic BTC Reserve and concerns over supply-demand imbalances remained a key headwind.

Bitcoin Strategic Reserve: Market Impact

President Trump signed an Executive Order (EO) in March, designating BTC as a national Strategic Reserve Asset. However, the EO tasked the Treasury Department with managing existing BTC holdings and developing budget-neutral BTC acquisition strategies. The lack of a directive for outright BTC purchases disappointed the crypto market.

Trump’s tariff policies and recession fears further dampened sentiment, weighing on investor confidence, adding to downside risks.

US BTC-spot ETF Market: Five Weeks of Outflows

Risk aversion stemming from Trump’s tariffs and concerns over a potential US recession impacted institutional demand.

For the week ending March 14, the US BTC-spot ETF market reported net outflows of $945.4 million, extending the outflow streak to five weeks.

According to Farside investors, the largest weekly ETF outflows included:

• iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) saw net outflows of $338.1 million.
• Fidelity Wise Origin Bitcoin Fund (FBTC) saw net outflows of $307.4 million, extending its outflow streak to 7-weeks.

As institutional investors continued exiting, weakening demand disrupted BTC’s supply-demand balance, leaving BTC down 0.17% in March.

However, BTC rebounded this week, rising 4.33%, as optimism grew over Senator Cynthia Lummis’ Bitcoin Act.

The Bitcoin Act: A Potential Game Changer?

On March 11, Senator Cynthia Lummis reintroduced the Bitcoin Act, proposing that the US government acquire one million BTC over five years, with a 20-year mandatory holding period.

The bill’s progress on Capitol Hill could be a key catalyst for BTC demand. Trump’s election victory and speculation about US government BTC accumulation previously fueled BTC’s rally to a January record high of $109,312.

Investors must closely monitor the Bitcoin Act’s progress in Congress.

BTC Price Outlook: Key Drivers

BTC’s near-term outlook hinges on key macroeconomic events, including US tariff policies, the upcoming Fed interest rate decision, and ETF flow trends.

• Bullish Scenario: ETF inflows and progress on Senator Cynthia Lummis’ Bitcoin Act could offset tariff risks and recession fears, potentially driving BTC beyond its record high of $109,312.
• Bearish Scenario: Opposition to the Bitcoin Act, escalating trade tensions, or a hawkish Fed policy outlook could push BTC toward $70K.

Dive deeper into the influence of macroeconomic data, US crypto policies, and BTC-spot ETF market flows on price action. Follow our analysis and forecasts here to manage crypto-related risks.

Technical Analysis

Bitcoin Analysis

Despite this week’s gains, BTC is in a mixed trend, trading below the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) but above the 200-day EMA. The EMAs sent bearish near-term but bullish longer-term price signals.

A break above the 200-day EMA and the $86,263 resistance level could signal a move toward the $90,742 resistance level. If BTC breaks out from the $90,742 resistance level and 50-day EMA, $100k would likely be the next key resistance level.

Conversely, if BTC drops below $80k, the bears could target the March 11 low of $76,642.

With a 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) reading of 44.05, BTC may drop to the March 11 low of $76,642 before entering oversold territory (RSI below 30).

Stay ahead of market trends by accessing real-time BTC price data and technical indicators here.

Ethereum Analysis

ETH, the second-largest cryptocurrency by market cap, sits well below the 50-day and 200-day EMAs, sending bearish price signals.

An ETH return to $2,000 could signal a move toward the $2,308 resistance level. A break above the $2,308 resistance level may enable the bulls to target the 50-day EMA and $2,500 next.

ETH-spot ETF flow trends remain crucial for near-term price movements.

Conversely, a drop below the March 11 low of $1,759 could signal a potential fall toward the $1,500 level.

The 14-period Daily RSI reading of 35.28 suggests ETH could fall to the March low of $1,759 before entering oversold territory. (RSI below 30).

Final Thoughts

BTC’s path to $110,000 remains uncertain as traders track the Bitcoin Act, Fed policy, tariff risks, and ETF flows. Broader macroeconomic conditions and US regulatory developments will continue influencing sentiment.

Stay ahead of market trends with real-time BTC price data and expert insights. Follow our live updates on BTC price movements here.