Bitcoin (BTC) News Today: Fed Rate Outlook Weighs on BTC Amid ETF Flows

BTC-Spot ETF Market Net Inflows Slide on Friday Sending BTC South

On Saturday (Mar 16), BTC slid by 5.99%, ending the session at $65,437.

BTC-spot ETF market flow data for Friday (Mar 15) impacted buyer demand for BTC.

On Friday, the BTC-spot ETF market saw net inflows of $338.2 million (excluding Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC) outflows). Net inflows (excluding GBTC outflows) fell from $389.8 million on Thursday (Mar 14) and $960.2 million on Wednesday (Mar 13).

A larger-than-expected rise in US producer prices (Thurs) impacted bets on an H1 2024 Fed rate cut. US producer prices rose by 1.6% year-on-year. In Jan, US producer prices increased by 1.0%. Economists forecast a 1.1% increase in producer prices. The numbers followed the US CPI Report (Tues), which signaled a sticky inflation environment.

According to the CME FedWatch Tool, the probability of a 25-basis point May Fed rate cut fell from 23.2% to 6.4% in the week ending Mar 15. The chances of the Fed leaving interest rates at 5.50% in June jumped from 26.6% to 41.2%.

The shift in sentiment toward the Fed rate path and impact on BTC-spot ETF market net inflows sent BTC to a Saturday low of $64,909.

Nonetheless, total weekly net inflows for the week ending Mar 15 reached a record high of $2,565.7 million, up from the previous high of $2,271 million in the week ending Feb 16. The weekly data, including GBTC outflows, could offer price support on Sunday as investors consider the week ahead.

US Federal Reserve Interest Rate Decision Looms

Looking ahead, the Fed will deliver the March interest rate decision on Wednesday (Mar 20). Investors expect the Fed to leave interest rates at 5.50%. However, forward guidance could influence near-term BTC price trends.

The FOMC Economic Projections and Press Conference will be the focal points. Concerns over inflation and the need for a higher-for-longer Fed rate path could pressure BTC at current levels.

However, investors must consider BTC-spot ETF market flow data. A continued upward trend in total net inflows could soften the impact of a more hawkish Fed.

Conversely, Fed support for an H1 2024 Fed rate cut may fuel buyer appetite for BTC and yield a new all-time high.

Technical Analysis

Bitcoin Analysis

BTC sat well above the 50-day and 200-day EMAs, affirming the bullish price signals.

A BTC break above the $69,000 resistance level would support a move to the Mar 14 all-time high of $73,810. A move through the ATH would give the bulls a run at the $75,000 handle.

On Sunday, BTC-spot ETF market chatter and views on the Fed rate path warrant investor consideration.

However, a drop below the $64,000 support level could signal a BTC fall toward the $60,365 support level.

The 14-Daily RSI reading, 57.21, suggests a BTC return to the ATH of $73,810 before entering overbought territory.

Ethereum Analysis

ETH remained above the 50-day and 200-day EMAs, sending bullish price signals.

An ETH break above the $3,835 resistance level would give the bulls a run at the Mar 12 high of $4,091. An ETH return to the Mar 12 high could signal an ETH move to the $4,200 handle.

ETH-spot ETF-related chatter needs investor consideration.

However, an ETH drop below the $3,480 support level could bring the $3,244 support level into play.

The 14-period Daily RSI at 52.25 indicates an ETH return to the $4,000 handle before entering overbought territory.