Bitcoin (BTC) News Today: Halving Looms as Spot ETF Flows Reflect Investor Caution

Crypto Market in a Pre-Halving Holding Pattern

BTC gained 0.68% on Tuesday. Partially reversing a 3.88% slide from Monday, BTC ended the session at $63,884.

BTC-spot ETF market flow data for April 15 impacted buyer demand for BTC early in the Tuesday session. The BTC-spot ETF market saw net outflows for the second successive session and the fourth session in six days. According to Farside Investors,

• Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC) saw net outflows of $110.1 million (April 15), down from $166.2 million (April 12).
• iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) saw net inflows fall from $111.1 million to $73.4 million.
• Fidelity Wise Origin Bitcoin Fund (FBTC) and the rest of the BTC-spot ETF market had zero net flows.
• Significantly, FBTC saw zero net flows for the second successive session.
• The BTC-spot ETF market saw net outflows of $36.7 million (April 15), down from $55.1 million (April 12).

Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, falling bets on a 2024 Fed rate cut, and the looming Bitcoin halving likely impacted flows.

On Tuesday, Fed Chair Powell warned of a higher-for-longer Fed interest rate path to allow the Fed to gain confidence inflation was moving to target. Subdued BTC-spot ETF market flow data also tested buyer demand for BTC. Nevertheless, hopes for tougher sanctions on Iran over an Israeli retaliation were positive for riskier assets.

However, BTC-spot ETF market flow data for April 16 remained lackluster despite updates from the Middle East.

BTC-Spot ETF Market Faces Net Outflows for a Third Session

Flow data for April 16 suggested a third successive day of net outflows. An extended period of net outflows could impact buyer demand for BTC. According to Farside Investors,

• GBTC saw net outflows of $79.4 million.
• ARK 21Shares Bitcoin ETF saw net outflows of $12.9 million.
• FBTC saw net inflows of $1.4 million.

Excluding IBIT and Valkyrie Bitcoin Fund (BRRR) flow data, the BTC-spot ETF market saw net outflows of $85.5 million.

IBIT inflow numbers have limited the impact of BTC-spot ETF market flow data on BTC.

Bloomberg Intelligence Senior ETF Analyst Eric Balchunas compared IBIT with GBTC, saying,

“The Flippening: $IBIT on schedule to pass $GBTC in assets by end of month. GBTC currently hanging on to a $2.3b lead. A monster rally in btc could delay it a bit but I think 4/30 is a solid over/under date.”

As of April 15, IBIT saw total net inflows of $15,329 million since launching on January 11. In contrast, GBTC saw total net outflows of $16,382.2 million since January 11.

While investors continue to monitor BTC-spot ETF market flow data, the Halving Countdown Clock is ticking.

Bitcoin and the Halving Event Countdown

According to the Bitcoin Halving Countdown Clock, the Bitcoin Halving event will occur on April 19, 2024.

Technical Analysis

Bitcoin Analysis

BTC hovered below the 50-day EMA while holding above the 200-day EMA. The EMAs affirmed the bearish near-term but bullish longer-term price signals.

A BTC breakout from the $64,000 resistance level would give the bulls a run at the 50-day EMA. A break above the 50-day EMA would support a move toward the $69,000 resistance level.

On Wednesday, BTC-spot ETF flow data, Halving chatter, and updates from the Middle East warrant investor attention.

Conversely, a BTC fall through the $63,000 handle could signal a drop to the $60,365 support level.

With a 14-Daily RSI reading of 42.18, BTC could drop to the $60,365 support level before entering oversold territory.

Ethereum Analysis

ETH sat below the 50-day EMA while remaining above the 200-day EMA. The EMAs confirmed the bearish near-term but bullish longer-term price trends.

An ETH break above the $3,244 resistance level could support a move to the 50-day EMA. A breakout from the 50-day EMA would bring the $3,480 resistance level into play.

Conversely, an ETH drop below the $3,033 support level could signal a fall to the 200-day EMA and the $2,664 support level.

The 14-period Daily RSI reading of 39.72 suggests an ETH fall through the $2,900 handle before entering oversold territory.