Bitcoin (BTC) News Today: US BTC-Spot ETF Outflows Drag BTC Below $61,000

Could US labor market and services sector data sink investor bets on a September Fed rate cut and bitcoin (BTC)?

BTC Dips Below $62,000 on Fed Chair Powell Comments and US Data

On Tuesday, July 2, BTC declined by 1.25%. Reversing a 0.24% loss from Monday, July 1, BTC ended the session at $62,107.

Better-than-expected US labor market data tested investor bets on a September Fed rate cut.

JOLTs job openings unexpectedly increased from 7.919 million in April to 8.140 million in May. Economists expected job openings of 7.910 million. An uptrend in job openings could signal an improving US labor market, supporting wages and disposable income. Higher disposable income may fuel consumer spending and demand-driven inflation.

A higher-for-longer Fed rate path could raise borrowing costs, reduce disposable income, and curb spending. A more hawkish Fed rate path could test buyer demand for BTC.

Fed Chair Powell added to the uncertainty about a September Fed rate cut, talking about good progress on inflation. However, the Fed Chair referenced wages on Tuesday, saying wage growth remained elevated.

Despite the better-than-expected job openings and concerns about wages, the chances of a September Fed rate hike improved on Tuesday.

According to the CME FedWatch Tool, the chances of the Fed holding interest rates unchanged in September fell from 34.5% to 32.8%. Nevertheless, the Friday US Jobs Report will be crucial.

A jump in expectations of a September Fed rate cut could drive buyer demand for BTC.

How did the US BTC-spot ETF market respond to the comments from Powell and the US labor market data?

US BTC-Spot ETF Market at Risk of Net Outflows

On Monday, the US BTC-spot ETF market saw total net inflows of $129.5 million. However, the US BTC-spot ETF market faces the possibility of net outflows on Tuesday.

According to Farside Investors,

• Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC) reported net outflows of $27.8 million on Tuesday after zero net flows on Monday.
• Bitwise Bitcoin ETF (BITB) had net outflows of $6.8 million after net inflows of $41.4 million on Monday.
• Fidelity Wise Origin Bitcoin Fund (FBTC) had net inflows of $5.4 million, with ARK 21Shares Bitcoin ETF (ARKB) reporting net inflows of $2.5 million.
• Excluding flow data for iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT), the US BTC-spot ETF market had total net outflows of $27.8 million.

Uncertainty toward the Fed rate path likely influenced flow trends before the crucial US Jobs Report.

Bloomberg Intelligence Senior ETF Analyst Eric Balchunas commented on recent US BTC-spot ETF flow trends on Tuesday, saying,

“Was surprised to check in on the bitcoin ETFs and see they actually had net positive flows for 1D, 1W and 1M. Was expecting worse given btc price fell $10k. During that stretch YTD net flow held steady at +14.6b. Good sign that number held strong during a ‘step back’ phase.”

The flow trends likely limited the downside for BTC, which briefly visited sub-$59,000 in June.

However, Investors should track the news wires, real-time US data, and expert commentary to manage trading strategies accordingly. Stay informed with our latest updates and insights to navigate the crypto market effectively.

Technical Analysis

Bitcoin Analysis

BTC sat below the 50-day EMA but remained above the 200-day EMA. The EMAs affirmed the bearish near-term signals but bullish longer-term signals.

A BTC break above the $64,000 resistance level would support a move to the 50-day EMA. A breakout from the 50-day EMA could give the bulls a run at the $69,000 resistance level.

US labor market and Services PMI data, US BTC-spot ETF market flow data, and FOMC member chatter need consideration.

On the other hand, a drop below the $60,365 support level could signal a fall to the 200-day EMA.

With a 37.90 14-Daily RSI reading, BTC could break below the 200-day EMA before entering oversold territory.

Ethereum Analysis

ETH remained below the 50-day EMA while holding above the 200-day EMA. The EMAs confirmed the bearish near-term but bullish longer-term price trends.

A move above the 50-day EMA and the $3,480 resistance level could give the bulls a run at the $3,600 handle. Selling pressure may intensify at the $3,480 resistance level. The 50-day EMA is confluent with the resistance level.

US ETH-spot ETF-related chatter needs consideration.

Conversely, an ETH break below the $3,244 support level could signal a fall to the 200-day EMA and the $3,033 support level.

The 14-period Daily RSI reading, 41.20, indicates an ETH break below the $3,244 support level before entering oversold territory.