Bitcoin (BTC) News Today: US Politics and ETF Inflows Drive BTC Breakout

Market Overview

On Friday, July 19, BTC rallied 4.10%. Reversing a 0.20% loss from Thursday, July 18, BTC closed at $66,652.

US Presidential Election Polls Give Trump and BTC the Lead

Rising expectations of a Trump return to the White House drove BTC demand on Friday. According to the 538 national polls, Trump leads US President Joe Biden by 3.2 points on July 20, up from 1.9 points on July 13.

Rumors of Biden planning to withdraw from the Presidential Election race also boosted BTC demand.

Bloomberg Intelligence Senior ETF Analyst Eric Balchunas commented on the rumors, stating,

“[…] My gut says Biden stays on as the nominee it is next to imposs to get a career politician to willingly give up power- esp one who isn’t in any kind of serious scandal. But the pressure is pretty powerful and growing. What a drama. “

Trump wooed the crypto vote in May 2024, saying,

“If you like crypto in any form…and it comes in many forms…if you’re in favor of crypto, you better vote Trump.”

Since then, Trump has acknowledging the importance of crypto, stating,

“We will ensure that the future of crypto and the future of bitcoin will be made in America. We’re going to keep it right here, and a lot of it’s going to be done right here in Florida.”

Trump, Vance, and SEC Chair Gary Gensler

Investors expect Trump to cut short SEC Chair Gary Gensler’s term and end the regulation through enforcement era that has plagued the US crypto market.

This week, Trump announced Senator JD Vance as his running mate. Senator Vance has been critical of SEC Chair Gensler.

In February 2024, US Senators Vance, Thom Tillis, Bill Hagerty, and Cynthia Lummis sent Chair Gensler a letter raising concerns about the SEC. The Senators wrote,

“Regardless of whether Commission staff deliberately misrepresented evidence or unknowingly presented false information, this case suggests other enforcement cases brought by the Commission may be deserving of scrutiny. It is difficult to maintain confidence that other cases are not predicated upon dubious evidence, obfuscations, or outright misrepresentations.”

As background, the SEC filed a Motion to Dismiss charges against Debt Box after Judge Robert Shelby ordered the SEC to show cause why it should not face sanctions for making false and misleading representation to the courts. The Senators wrote to the SEC Chair because of the Debt Box case.

US BTC-Spot ETF Market Gains Momentum

On Friday, July 19, the US BTC-spot ETF market extended its inflow streak to eleven sessions.

According to Farside Investors,

• Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC) saw net inflows of $20.3 million.
• Fidelity Wise Origin Bitcoin Fund (FBTC) reported net inflows of $141.0 million.
• Bitwise Bitcoin ETF (BITB) saw net inflows of $44.6 million.
• VanEck Bitcoin Trust (HODL) had net inflows of $41.8 million.
• Excluding iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT), the US BTC-spot ETF market saw total net inflows of $267.4 million.
• Monday to Thursday, IBIT reported total net inflows of $590.5 million.

US BTC-spot ETF market inflows eased immediate investor concerns about oversupply from Mt. Gox repaying creditors.

Mt.Gox and 141,000 BTC Repayment

Mt. Gox will return about $9 billion in BTC to its creditors after collapsing in February 2014.

Investors expect most creditors to lock in their profits upon repayment. In February 2024, 141,000 amounted to about $70 million compared with today’s value of about $9 billion.

On Tuesday, July 16, Mt. Gox creditors sent 48,641 BTC to Kraken, beginning the repayment process. Kraken plans to fund creditor accounts within the next week.

Demand from the US BTC-spot ETF market could be crucial for BTC to trend higher. Weak demand could expose BTC to oversupply risk and a sharp drop below $50,000.

Investors should remain alert as Mt. Gox remains a BTC headwind. Monitor real-time data and expert commentary to adjust your trading strategies accordingly. Stay up-to-date with our latest news and analysis to manage crypto market risk.

Technical Analysis

Bitcoin Analysis

BTC sat comfortably above the 50-day and 200-day EMAs, sending bullish price signals.

A BTC breakout from $67,500 would support a move to the $69,000 resistance level. A break above the $69,000 resistance level would bring the March 2024 all-time high of $73,808 into play.

US BTC-spot ETF market flow data, US politics, and Mt. Gox-related chatter require consideration.

On the other hand, a break below the $64,000 support level could give the bears a run at the 50-day EMA. A fall through the 50-day EMA may signal a drop to the $60,365 support level.

With a 64.20 14-Daily RSI reading, BTC could break above the $69,000 resistance level before entering overbought territory.

Ethereum Analysis

ETH remained above the 50-day and 200-day EMAs, confirming the bullish price trends.

A return to $3,600 could signal a move toward the $3,835 resistance level. A break above the $3,835 resistance level would bring $4,000 into play.

US ETH-spot ETF market-related updates also require consideration.

Conversely, an ETH break below the $3,480 support level could give the bears a run at the 50-day EMA. A drop below the 50-day EMA would bring the $3,244 support level into view.

The 14-period Daily RSI reading, 59.75, suggests an ETH break above the $3,835 resistance level before entering overbought territory.