Bitcoin (BTC) Struggles to Regain Momentum Despite BlackRock’s ETF Inflows

Bitcoin Eyes Capitol Hill: Will the Bitcoin Act Reignite the $100K Rally?

Bitcoin (BTC) slipped 0.27% on Saturday, extending Friday’s modest losses to close at $84,823. The optimism sparked by the Fed’s dovish tone earlier in the week has faded, with traders now looking to Washington for the next catalyst. In focus: the Bitcoin Act and its potential to revive bullish momentum toward the $100K milestone.

Hopes for the US government to make a substantial BTC purchase have waned in recent weeks, impacting sentiment toward BTC. In March 2025, President Trump signed an Executive Order (EO), establishing a national Strategic Bitcoin Reserve (SBR). However, the EO fell short of market expectations. It proposed using BTC seized through criminal cases or civil forfeitures to build the reserve—falling short of expectations for direct large-scale purchases.

CryptoQuant Head of Research Julio Moreno highlighted weakening sentiment:

“CryptoQuant’s Bull Score Index shows the least bullish conditions since January 2023. With a Bull Score of 20, the model suggests a weak investment environment for Bitcoin, reducing the likelihood of a sustained rally in the near term. If the score remains below 40 for an extended period, it could signal the continuation of bearish market conditions, similar to previous bear market phases.”

While the mood has soured, progress on the Bitcoin Act could revive BTC demand.

Senator Cynthia Lummis reintroduced the Bitcoin Act on March 11, proposing the US government purchase one million BTC over five years, with a 20-year mandatory holding period.

The bill’s progress on Capitol Hill could become a key BTC price catalyst. Trump’s election victory and speculation about US government plans for a significant BTC acquisition had driven BTC to a record high of $109,312 in January.

Investors must closely monitor the Bitcoin Act’s progress in Congress.

US BTC-spot ETF Market Snaps Five Weeks of Outflow Streak

Despite prevailing concerns, institutional demand returned in the week ending March 21. According to Farside Investors:

• iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) saw net inflows of $537.5 million.
• Fidelity Wise Origin Bitcoin Fund (FBTC) had net inflows of $136.5 million, ending its seven-week outflow streak.
• The US BTC-spot ETF market reported total net inflows of $744.3 million, snapping a five-week outflow streak.

Rising institutional demand supported BTC’s sustained price recovery from the March 11 low of $76,642. BTC is up 1.93% this week.

BTC Price Outlook: Key Drivers

BTC’s near-term outlook hinges on several factors, including US tariff policies, the upcoming US Personal Income and Outlays Report, and ETF flows.

• Bullish Scenario: ETF inflows and progress on Senator Cynthia Lummis’ Bitcoin Act could outweigh tariff risks and recession fears, potentially driving BTC beyond its record high of $109,312.
• Bearish Scenario: Opposition to the Bitcoin Act, escalating trade tensions, spot ETF outflows, or a hawkish Fed policy outlook could push BTC toward $70K.

For deeper insights on macro data, regulatory developments, and ETF market flows, follow our analysis and forecasts here to manage crypto risks.

Technical Analysis

Bitcoin Analysis

Despite this week’s gains, BTC is in a bearish trend, trading below the 50-day and 200-day Exponential Moving Averages (EMA). The EMAs sent bearish price signals.

A break above the 200-day EMA and the $86,263 resistance level could signal a move toward the 50-day EMA and the $90,742 resistance level. If BTC breaks out from the $90,742 resistance level, $100k would likely be the next key resistance level.

Conversely, if BTC drops below $80k, the March 11 low of $76,642 could be the next key support level.

With a 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) reading of 45.70, BTC may drop to the March 11 low of $76,642 before entering oversold territory (RSI below 30).

Stay ahead of market trends by accessing real-time BTC price data and technical indicators here.

Ethereum Analysis

Meanwhile, ETH remains well below the 50-day and 200-day EMAs, affirming bearish price signals.

An ETH break above $2,000 could enable the bulls to target the $2,308 resistance level and the 50-day EMA. A breakout from the 50-day EMA may signal a move toward $2,500.

Trends in ETH-spot ETF flows remain crucial for near-term price movements.

Conversely, a break below the March 11 low of $1,759 could enable the bears to target $1,500.

The 14-period Daily RSI reading of 42.18 indicates ETH could drop to the March 11 low of $1,759 before entering oversold territory. (RSI below 30).

Final Thoughts

BTC’s return path to $100,000 depends on the Bitcoin Act, Fed policy signals, tariff risks, and ETF flows. Broader macroeconomic conditions and US regulatory developments will continue influencing sentiment.

Stay ahead of market trends with real-time BTC price data and expert insights. Follow our live updates on BTC price movements here.