Bitcoin Bull Market is Not Over: 3 Indicators Show Rebound Toward $100K Next

A recent correction in the Bitcoin (BTC) market has not deterred investors from purchasing the cryptocurrency during its local dips, indicating that the ongoing bull market remains intact despite short-term volatility.

Bitcoin Exchange Reserves Hit 2018 Lows

On Nov. 27, Bitcoin reserves on centralized exchanges dropped to 2.508 billion BTC, a level not seen since September 2018. The decline coincides with Bitcoin’s circa 10% correction from its record high of $99,800, suggesting that most investors are not panicking.

Instead, they are preparing to hold their Bitcoin through short-term price fluctuations, reinforcing the narrative of a robust bull market. Historically, such trends reflect increased confidence in long-term price appreciation as investors show reluctance to sell their holdings.

In contrast, exchange reserves climbed during the 2021 and 2022 bear markets as sell-side pressure mounted. Therefore, the current divergence—falling reserves despite short-term price weakness—suggests a structural shift towards accumulation rather than distribution.

Bitcoin Short-Term Holders Are Selling At Loss — Rebound Next?

Some on-chain metrics continue to signal that Bitcoin remains in a bull market despite ongoing correction.

For instance, the Short-Term SOPR focuses exclusively on short-term holders—those who have held Bitcoin for more than 1 hour but less than 155 days—and measures whether they sell at a profit or loss. A value above 1 indicates profit-taking, while a value below 1 suggests a higher proportion of losses.

On Nov. 23, the Short-Term SOPR climbed to 1.03, suggesting that some short-term investors locked in profits during the early stages of Bitcoin’s correction.

However, historical trends reveal that when short-term holders begin selling at a loss (SOPR< 1), it often signals the exhaustion of weak hands, paving the way for a rebound. Prolonged or deepening corrections that push SOPR below 1 can, therefore, create favorable buying opportunities for long-term investors.

Bitcoin’s MVRV Z-Score chart further raises BTC’s potential of continuing its uptrend. As of Nov. 27, the score was below the red zone (which historically signals overvaluation and potential market tops).

Bitcoin MVRV Z Score. Source: GlassnodeInstead, the metric suggests Bitcoin is within a sustainable valuation range with potential for further upside.

Historically, the MVRV Z-Score has spiked into the red zone during euphoric market peaks, such as late 2017 and late 2021. As of now, the metric remains well below those levels, aligning with other indicators that suggest Bitcoin is still in the middle of its bull cycle rather than nearing the end.

Bitcoin Technical Analysis: A $100K BTC Rate Is Still Possible in 2024

Bitcoin is showing signs of resilience after bouncing from a critical support confluence, bolstering optimism for a potential rally toward $100,000 by December 2024.

The cryptocurrency’s price recently retested an intersection of support levels, including the 100-day exponential moving average (EMA), the 0.236 Fibonacci retracement level near $90,250, and an ascending trendline established since October 2024.

Additionally, Bitcoin’s daily relative strength index (RSI) has recovered from oversold territory, signaling renewed buying momentum. A decisive break above $94,500, the 50-day EMA, could pave the way for a retest of $99,800 and a push toward the psychological $100,000 milestone.