The Bitcoin market continues to look at the $60,000 area as a major support region, and therefore the market will continue to see this large, round, number as a sign of areas worth paying close attention to.
The Bitcoin market has rallied a little bit during the early hours on Thursday after pulling back and now it looks like we are in the midst of trying to establish a potential floor at the $60,000 region. With this, I think we are trying to do everything we can to reaffirm the recent rally. But when you look at the chart, and you go back to basically since the ETF was announced, you could make an argument, I guess, for a huge bullish flag, but at this point, it’s a little long in the tooth to consider it as such.
Are we forming some type of rounding bottom and taking off? It’s possible, but it’s also clearly a market that’s struggling to gain traction, which I find interesting. I think at this point with Wall Street controlling Bitcoin, and let’s not kid ourselves, BlackRock has been buying it hand over fist, it has a bit of a floor underneath it, but I don’t think it really has momentum, so this will probably end up being a slow and steady market like Wall Street likes.
And I just don’t see why that would change. And until we get some type of adoption in the real world, I think there are a lot of questions to ask about the long-term viability of Bitcoin. I keep hearing how it solves everything, but I’ve yet to see it happen. So longer term, I’m actually very bearish on Bitcoin.
I think it will probably be something, but it’s not going to be the be-all end-all that people think it is. Nonetheless, the technical analysis, at least at this point, still looks somewhat lackluster. If we bounce from here, and I suspect we probably will, we will have the $62,000 level to pay attention to, and then the $65,000 level after that. Breaking down below the $60,000 level opens up the possibility of a move down to the $57,500 level, where I see even more support. I understand it is a decentralized ledger of account. That isn’t really the problem that I find with a longer term use case scenario. In fact, decentralized ledgers have existed since the Middle Ages.
There’s nothing new about it, except for it’s in electronic form. The reality is that we just aren’t seeing adoption in the larger economies. I live in a metro area of about 5 million in the United States. I can’t tell you any place that I’ve seen that accepts Bitcoin as payment. It just is what it is. But in the meantime, I think it’s being used by Wall Street more or less, as some type of proxy instead of bonds. It’s almost like the store of value might be the end result. We don’t know. It’s been a lot of things over the last few years, or we’re supposed to be. And I think this is a market that’s just trying to figure all that out.
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Being FXEmpire’s analyst since the early days of the website, Chris has over 20 years of experience across various markets and assets – currencies, indices, and commodities. He is a proprietary trader as well trading institutional accounts.