Bitcoin Topped in March. Is There More Downside to Come?

Back to the Drawing Board

Although in our previous update from late July, we were, correctly, looking for lower prices ($60+/-2K), we got more than we bargained for: $49K on August 5. Moreover, we stated, “Only a break below the July 5 low at $53528 will prove our assessment wrong.” Thus, our previous Elliott Wave Principle (EWP) count for Bitcoin (BTCUSD) was proven wrong.

The August 5 low went below the July 5 low, which is not allowed for a Wave-1, 2 setup. Namely, what were the cleanest five waves up that we have seen in a while, after what appeared as a reasonably clear five waves lower (see Figure 1 in our previous update) were, however, not part of a new 1^st wave up.

This is why we always say, “We’re wrong until proven right because all we can do is anticipate, monitor, and adjust.” This doesn’t mean the EWP doesn’t work; it simply means our assessment was wrong. Thus, we must go back to the drawing board.

$62000 is Critical Resistance

Instead, that rally was most likely the c-wave of an irregular expanded flat W-b. See Figure 1 above. C-wave comprises five waves. Besides, it means the potential green W-4 we have been tracking has become even more protracted as BTC peaked in March and has gone sideways since then, a five-month long nothing burger. The August 5 low was well below the more typical 38.20% retracement of the green W-3, which was reached in July, and thus, the Bulls were placed on watch. But all hope is not lost.

The $62000 level is critical. That level has been Support many times this year but has also acted as resistance, especially since the August 5 low. BTC has bumped into it five times now (!). Moreover, it is now also right at the (blue) 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at $61360. Thus, BTC must clear that level to get any upside going. Please note the EWP count shown is one of several we are tracking. Why several? Because the price of BTC is such a sideways mess, and that’s not EWP’s strong suit… Thus, the Bulls’ warning levels have been raised.

However, BTC is back above its 10 and 20-d SMAs, which it has been below since late July. Thus, the short-term trend has changed, but reclaiming the 50d SMA and the $62000 level is critical. That will allow a quick attack of the 200d SMA and a rally above the Ichimoku Cloud. If all that happens, the chart will turn from 80% Bearish to 40% Bullish, which will be a significant improvement. Until then, keep an eye on the warning levels because if the August 5 low has taught us anything, it is that this year’s price action is discombobulated.