BTC Bulls to Target a Return to $30,000 on US Debt Ceiling and Banks

Key Insights:

• On Wednesday, BTC rose by 0.36% to end the day at $28,427.
• US banking sector woes, corporate earnings, and economic indicators delivered support.
• The technical indicators are turning bearish, signaling a return to $30,000.

On Wednesday, bitcoin (BTC) rose by 0.36%. Following a 2.91% gain on Tuesday, BTC ended the day at $28,427. Significantly, BTC visited the $30,000 handle for the first time since April 19.

Bullish throughout the morning, BTC surged to a midday high of $30,034 before hitting reverse. BTC broke through the First Major Resistance Level (R1) at $28,742 and the Second Major Resistance Level (R2) at ($29,160). However, coming up against resistance at $30,000, BTC slid to a low of $27,234. BTC briefly fell through the First Major Support Level (S1) at $27,558 before bouncing back to end the session at $28,427.

US Government Overshadows First Republic Bank Woes and Corporate Earnings

It was a busy Wednesday, with US economic indicators and corporate earnings in focus. After the disappointing consumer confidence numbers and United Parcel Service (UPS) earnings, sentiment improved on Wednesday.

While US recessionary fears lingered, US core durable goods orders increased by 0.3% in March, delivering support. Core durable goods orders fell by 0.3% in February.

Microsoft (MSFT) and Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL) delivered better-than-forecast earnings, supporting a bullish start to the day. First Republic Bank (FRC) troubles also supported demand for BTC and the broader crypto market.

However, BTC tumbled by 6.21% in a single hour, tracking the NASDAQ Composite Index into reverse at the end of the US session.

On Wednesday, the NASDAQ Composite Index rose by 0.47, while the Dow and S&P 500 ended the

Investor angst toward the US debt ceiling and recession jitters likely contributed to the Wednesday reversal.

The Day Ahead

It is a busy Thursday session. US economic indicators and corporate earnings will remain in focus.

US Q1 GDP and jobless claims figures will draw interest. A weaker-than-expected GDP number and a spike in jobless claims could spook investors. Economists forecast the US economy to see growth slow from 2.6% to 2.0% in Q1 and for jobless claims to increase from 245k to 248k.

Big names on the US earnings calendar include Amazon.com (AMZN), Mastercard (MA), Intel (INTC), and Caterpillar (CAT). We expect Amazon.com’s earnings to have more influence.

Away from the US calendars, the crypto news wires will remain the focal point. The US banking sector, SEC v Ripple case-related updates, and Binance and Coinbase (COIN)-related news will move the dial. Regulatory activity and US lawmaker chatter will also draw interest.

Bitcoin (BTC) Price Action

This morning, BTC was up 0.62% to $28,603. A bullish start to the day saw BTC rise from an early low of $28,395 to a high of $28,603.

Technical Indicators

Resistance & Support Levels

BTC needs to avoid the $28,565 pivot to target the First Major Resistance Level (R1) at $29,896 and the Wednesday high of $30,034. A return to $29,000 would signal an extended bullish session. The crypto news wires, US corporate earnings, and US economic indicators should be crypto-friendly to support an extended rally.

In the event of an extended rally, BTC would likely test the Second Major Resistance Level (R2) at $31,365. The Third Major Resistance Level (R3) sits at $34,165.

A fall through the pivot would bring the First Major Support Level (S1) at $27,096 into play. However, barring a data-fueled sell-off, BTC should avoid sub-$27,000 and the Second Major Support Level (S2) at $25,765. The Third Major Support Level (S3) sits at $22,965.

Looking at the EMAs and the 4-hourly candlestick chart (below), it was bullish signals. BTC sat above the 100-day EMA ($28,487). The 50-day EMA pulled away from the 200-day EMA, with the 100-day EMA widening from the 200-day EMA, sending bullish signals.

A hold above the 100-day EMA ($28,487) would support a breakout from R1 ($29,896) to target R2 ($31,365). However, a fall through the EMAs would bring S1 ($27,096) into view. A fall through the 50-day EMA would send a bearish signal.