BTC Fear & Greed Index Inches Higher to Signal a BTC Run at $26,000

Key Insights:

• It was a bullish Monday, with BTC rising by 2.27% to end the session at $24,835.
• A quiet Monday session left the bulls in control, with BTC revisiting the $25,000 handle for the fourth time in five sessions.
• The Fear & Greed Index remained within the Greed zone, rising from 58/100 to 60/100.

On Monday, bitcoin (BTC) rallied by 2.27%. Reversing a 1.42% decline from Tuesday, BTC ended the day at $24,835. Despite the bullish session, BTC revisited sub-$24,000 for the first time in three sessions.

A choppy start to the day saw BTC slide to an early morning low of $23,862. BTC briefly fell through the First Major Support Level (S1) at $23,934 before rallying to an early afternoon high of $25,114. BTC broke through the First Major Resistance Level (R1) at $24,922 before easing back to end the day at $24,835.

Regulator and US Lawmaker Silence Delivers a Bullish Session

There were no external market forces to influence investors, with the US markets closed for George Washington’s birthday.

While there were no US economic indicators for investors to consider, there were also no regulatory moves or US lawmaker chatter to influence sentiment. The quiet session supported a BTC recovery from early losses, though BTC failed to hold onto the $25,000 handle, reflecting lingering regulatory uncertainty and Fed Fear.

The Day Ahead

It is a busier day ahead, with the US markets reopening after the Monday holiday. US economic indicators will draw interest in the afternoon session. Prelim private sector PMI numbers for February will be in the spotlight, with the services PMI likely to have more influence on the NASDAQ Composite Index and broader crypto market.

The sub-components will provide the Fed with further data points. Input and output price pressures, new orders, and labor market conditions are likely focal points.

This morning, the NASDAQ Composite Index was down 20.25 points.

However, we expect US regulatory activity and US lawmaker chatter to remain the key drivers.

The Fear & Greed Index Stays Greedy on BTC Return to $25,000

Today, the BTC Fear & Greed Index rose from 58/100 to 60/100, reversing Monday’s decline. However, the Index remained within the Greed zone, despite the bullish BTC session, suggesting regulatory jitters and Fed Fear.

Despite increased US lawmaker scrutiny of SEC regulatory activity, regulatory jitters resurfaced over the weekend. The US Department of Justice, the CFTC, and the SEC have increased the scrutiny of the digital asset space in response to the White House call for greater oversight.

It could be a difficult time for US crypto participants. The market would need bipartisan bills to introduce appropriate regulatory controls.

The likelihood of a more aggressive Fed interest rate trajectory remained a crypto market headwind to weigh on the Index.

After returning to the Greed zone, the Index must avoid the Neutral zone to support a BTC breakout from $25,000 to target $30,000. However, an Index return to the Fear zone would signal a near-term bullish trend reversal.

Bitcoin (BTC) Price Action

This morning, BTC was down 0.22% to $24,780. A mixed start to the day saw BTC rise to an early high of $24,842 before falling to a low of $24,778.

Technical Indicators

BTC needs to avoid a fall through the $24,604 pivot to target the First Major Resistance Level (R1) at $25,345. A move through the Monday high of $25,114 would signal a breakout session. The crypto news wires need to be crypto-friendly to support an extended rally.

In the event of an extended rally, BTC would likely test the Second Major Resistance Level (R2) at $25,856 and resistance at $26,000. The Third Major Resistance Level (R3) sits at $27,108.

A fall through the pivot would bring the First Major Support Level (S1) at $24,093 into play. However, barring a crypto event-fueled crypto sell-off, BTC should avoid sub-$23,500 and the Second Major Support Level (S2) at $23,352.

The Third Major Support Level (S3) sits at $22,100.

Looking at the EMAs and the 4-hourly candlestick chart (below), it was a bullish signal. BTC sat above the 50-day EMA ($23,928). The 50-day EMA pulled further away from the 100-day EMA, with the 100-day EMA widening from the 200-day EMA, delivering bullish signals.

A hold above S1 ($24,093) and the 50-day EMA ($23,928) would support a breakout from R1 ($25,345) to target R2 ($25,856) and $26,000. However, a fall through S1 ($24,093) and the 50-day EMA ($23,928) would give the bears a run at the 100-day EMA ($23,384) and S2 ($23,352). A fall through the 50-day EMA ($23,928) would send a bearish signal.