BTC Price Forecast: Bitcoin Eyes $70K on Fed Rate Cut Bets and ETF Inflows

Bitcoin Nears $65,000 on Soft US Economic Landing Bets

On Thursday, September 19, BTC rose by 1.84%, following a 2.41% gain from the previous session, closing at $62,913. BTC mirrored gains from the broader crypto market, which advanced by 2.24%, taking the total market cap of $2.129 trillion.

US Jobless Claims Drive BTC to $63,888

On Thursday, US economic data raised expectations of a soft US landing, driving demand for riskier assets.

Initial jobless claims declined from 231k (week ending September 7) to 219k (week ending September 14). The unexpected fall in claims aligned with the Fed’s expectations of a soft US landing, driving demand for riskier assets. In response, BTC rallied to a session high of $63,888, while the Nasdaq Composite Index closed 2.51% higher.

Strong labor market conditions could support wage growth and disposable income, possibly driving consumer spending, which accounts for over 60% of the US economy.

US BTC-spot ETF Inflows Highlight Renewed Demand

On Thursday, the US BTC-spot ETF market eyed a fifth day of inflows in six sessions, indicating a pickup in BTC demand.

According to Farside Investors:

• ARK 21Shares Bitcoin ETF (ARKB) saw net inflows of $81.1 million (previous day: -$43.4 million).
• Fidelity Wise Origin Bitcoin Fund (FBTC) had net inflows of $49.9 million (previous day: zero net flows).
• Bitwise Bitcoin ETF (BITB) reported net inflows of $10.4 million (previous day: -$3.9 million).

Excluding iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) flows, US BTC-spot ETFs had $158.3 million in net inflows on September 19, following net outflows of $52.7 million the previous day.

Expectations of further Fed interest rate cuts in November and December, coupled with hopes for a soft US landing, could push BTC toward $70,000.

BlackRock Labels BTC a Unique Diversifier

On Thursday, MicroStrategy (MSTR) founder and Chairman, Michael Saylor, shared BlackRock’s (BLK) latest research paper, describing BTC as a unique diversifier, stating,

“For investors, #Bitcoin is a unique diversifier. BlackRock has published some excellent research on this topic, which articulates the value of bitcoin and dispels popular misconceptions.”

BlackRock identified four key points:

• Investors struggle to analyze BTC relative to traditional asset classes, considering its unique features and limited history.
• Traditional risky assets and BTC have different risk and return drivers, making traditional finance frameworks (risk-on vs. risk-off) unsuitable.
• Some investors consider BTC a safe haven because of its scarce, non-sovereign, decentralized nature.
• Adoption will likely hinge on concerns over global monetary stability, geopolitical stability, US fiscal stability, and US political stability. BlackRock sees BTC as having an inverse relationship to traditional risky assets regarding these stability influences.

BlackRock was among the first to issue a US BTC-spot ETF and leads the way, with total net inflows of $20,924 million since January 11, 2024. The influence of the BTC-spot ETF market on BTC price trends remains significant. BTC was trading at $46,716 on January 10, 2024.

US BTC-spot ETF flow trends will remain a focal point for investors, which remains crucial in supply-demand terms.

Investors should remain alert, with Fed chatter spot ETF flow trends likely to influence BTC and the broader market. Stay updated with our latest news and analysis to manage your BTC and crypto exposures.

Technical Analysis

Bitcoin Analysis

BTC remains well above the 50-day and 200-day EMAs, confirming bullish price trends.

A breakout from Thursday’s high of $63,888 and the $64,000 resistance level could signal a move toward $67,500. Furthermore, a return to $67,500 may give the bulls a run at $70,000.

Investors should consider Fed commentary and BTC-spot ETF market trends.

Conversely, a fall through the $60,365 support level may give the bears a run at the 50-day and 200-day EMAs. A drop below the EMAs would signal a bullish trend reversal, possibly sending BTC toward the $55,000 level.

With a 61.04 14-day RSI reading, BTC could rise to $65,000 before entering overbought territory.

Ethereum Analysis

ETH hovers below the 50-day and 200-day EMAs, sending bearish price signals.

An ETH return to $2,500 could support a move toward the 50-day EMA. Furthermore, a breakout from the 50-day EMA may give the bulls a run at the $2,664 resistance level.

US ETH-spot ETF market-related updates also require consideration.

Conversely, an ETH break below the $2,403 support level could bring the $2,124 support level into play.

The 14-period Daily RSI reading, 50.47, indicates an ETH break above the $2,664 resistance level before entering overbought territory.