BTC Price Outlook: Will BTC Break $90K? White House Summit and Tariff Risks in Focus

Bitcoin Steadies as White House Crypto Summit Approaches

On Saturday, March 1, bitcoin (BTC) gained 2.16%, reversing Friday’s 0.35% loss to close at $86,183. Despite Saturday’s upswing, BTC fell short of the $90k level for the fourth consecutive session, reflecting a weak demand backdrop.

US Tariff Threats Impact on BTC Demand

US Tariff Developments overshadowed Fed rate cut bets impacting BTC ETF flows. During the past week, President Trump reaffirmed plans to impose tariffs on Canadian, Chinese, and Mexican imports, raising fears of a global trade war.

Higher US tariffs could push import prices higher, fueling inflationary pressures and impacting the Fed rate path. Rising borrowing costs may dampen investor appetite for BTC. The US BTC-spot ETF market reflected investor sentiment toward US tariffs and the Fed rate path.

According to Farside Investors, key flow data for the week ending February 28 included:

• iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) had net outflows of $1,175 million, the largest since launching in January 2024.
• Fidelity Wise Origin Bitcoin Fund (FBTC) saw net outflows of $569 million, extending its outflow streak to 5-weeks.
• Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC) reported net outflows of $189 million.

All eleven BTC-spot ETF issuers registered net outflows, marking a challenging February for BTC and the broader market. The US BTC-spot ETF market recorded total net outflows of $3,543 million for February, compared to $5,159 in inflows in January.

Weaker demand for BTC-spot ETFs affected the supply-demand balance, leaving bitcoin down 17.79% in February.

White House Crypto Summit: Will Trump Address BTC?

On Friday, March 7, the White House will host the first crypto summit, with innovation and regulation likely talking points. Crypto Czar David Sacks shared a press release stating:

“Attendees will include prominent founders, CEOs, and investors from the crypto industry, as well as members of the President’s Working Group on Digital Assets. The summit will be chaired by the White House AI & Crypto Czar David Sachs and administered by the Working Group’s Executive Director Bo Hines.”

The presence of the President’s Working Group on Digital Assets could prove significant. President Trump signed an Executive Order on January 23, establishing the President’s Working Group on Digital Assets.

The Working Group was tasked with evaluating the creation of a strategic national digital assets stockpile. The reference to a digital assets stockpile raised concerns that the government may not prioritize a national Strategic BTC Reserve (SBR), contributing to BTC’s recent retreat.

Senator Cynthia Lummis introduced the Bitcoin Act, proposing the US government acquire one million BTC over five years, with a 20-year mandatory holding period. If enacted, the policy could significantly impact Bitcoin’s supply, potentially pushing BTC to record highs.

BTC could reverse February’s losses if the Working Group signals progress toward a US SBR. However, if the government decides to maintain its current crypto stockpile rather than pursue reserve asset status, BTC demand could remain weak.

BTC Price Outlook: Key Drivers

BTC’s trajectory depends on US tariff policies, Fed rate cut expectations, US Strategic Bitcoin Reserve (SBR) developments, and ETF flow trends.

• Bullish Scenario: US BTC-spot ETF inflows and progress toward a US SBR could mitigate US tariff risks and a dovish Fed, driving BTC beyond the record high of $109,312.
• Bearish Scenario: Government opposition to a US SBR, US tariffs, and a hawkish Fed could pull BTC below $80k.

Dive deeper into the influence of macroeconomic data, US crypto policies, and BTC-spot ETF market flows on price action. Follow our analysis and forecasts here to manage crypto-related risks.

Technical Analysis

Bitcoin Analysis

After February’s losses, BTC is in a mixed trend, trading below the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) but above the 200-day EMA. The EMAs sent bearish near-term but bullish longer-term price signals.

A break above the $86,263 resistance level could signal a move toward the $90,742 resistance level. If BTC broke out from the $90,742 resistance level, the bulls could target the 50-day EMA next.

Conversely, if BTC breaks below the 200-day EMA, the bears could target $80,000.

With a 31.16 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) reading, BTC may drop below the 200-day EMA before entering oversold territory (RSI below 30).

Stay ahead of market trends by accessing real-time BTC price data and technical indicators here.

Ethereum Analysis

ETH, still the second-largest cryptocurrency by market cap, sits well below the 50-day and 200-day EMAs, sending bearish price signals.

An ETH break above the $2,308 resistance level could signal a move toward the 50-day and the $2,815 resistance level. If ETH breaks out from the $2,815 resistance level, the 200-day EMA will be the next target.

ETH-spot ETF flow trends remain crucial for near-term price movements.

Conversely, a break below $2,000 could signal a potential fall toward the $1,750.

The 14-period Daily RSI reading of 28.37 shows ETH sitting in oversold territory. (RSI below 30). Buying pressure could intensify at the February 28 low of $2,077.

Final Thoughts

BTC’s path to $110,000 remains uncertain as traders monitor Fed policy, tariff risks, and ETF flows. Broader macroeconomic conditions and US regulatory developments will continue to shape market sentiment.

Stay informed with real-time data and expert insights here.