BTC Struggles Amid US Govt Transfers, Retail Sales Boost; ETF Inflows Offer Limited Support

BTC Dips Below $57,000 Amid Market Concerns

On Thursday, August 15, BTC declined by 1.94%, following a 3.14% slide on Wednesday, closing at $57,613. The total crypto market cap fell by 2.04% to $2 trillion.

Oversupply Risks Overshadow Positive US Economic Data

Recent US government BTC transfers continued to impact BTC demand on Thursday.

On Wednesday, August 14, the US government moved 10,000 BTC ($593.5 million) from its Silk Road stockpile to a Coinbase wallet. The move followed the US government’s $2 billion transfer on July 29. BTC struck a July 29 high of $69,912 before feeling the effects of the US government transfer. Currently, the US government holds 203,239 BTC (11.71 billion).

The US government’s BTC transfers raised fears of a possible surge in BTC supply amid softer demand from the US BTC-spot ETF market.

US Economic Data Offers Temporary Relief

On Thursday, retail sales and jobless claims data supported investor bets on a soft US economic landing.

Retail sales jumped by 1.0% month-on-month in July after falling by 0.2% in June. A pickup in consumer spending could bolster the US economy as it contributes over 60% to GDP.

Initial jobless claims slipped from 233k in the week ending August 3 to 227k in the week ending August 10. Tighter labor market conditions may support wage growth and consumer confidence, suggesting higher consumer spending trends.

The upbeat data pushed BTC to a Thursday high of $58,857. However, it experienced a late slide to a low of $56,165.

US BTC-Spot ETF Market Inflows Provide Late Support

US BTC-spot ETF market flow trends for Thursday supported a late BTC return to the $57,700 handle.

According to Farside Investors:

• On Thursday, Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC) saw net outflows of $25.0 million.
• Grayscale Bitcoin Mini Trust (BTC) reported net inflows of $13.7 million
• Fidelity Wise Origin Bitcoin Fund (FBTC) had net inflows of $16.2 million.
• Bitwise Bitcoin ETF (BITB) saw net inflows of $6.2 million.

Excluding flow data for iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT), the US BTC-spot ETF market recorded net inflows of $11.1 million on Thursday.

BTC supply-demand trends remain pivotal on Friday, with Mt. Gox being another source of oversupply risk, holding 46,164 BTC to repay creditors.

Expert Views on Crypto-Spot ETFs

ETF Store President Nate Geraci commented on the US BTC-spot ETF market, saying,

“iShares Bitcoin ETF has taken in approx $20.5bil this yr… Numbers are comical at this point. Spot btc ETFs (IBIT, FBTC, ARKB, BITB) = top 4 launches of 2024.”

Technical Analysis

Bitcoin Analysis

BTC remained below the 50-day and 200-day EMAs, affirming bearish price signals.

A breakout from the 200-day EMA could give the bulls a run at the $60,365 resistance level. Furthermore, a break above the $60,365 resistance level would bring the 50-day EMA into play.

Market participants should closely monitor Mt. Gox and US government BTC supply news, alongside US BTC-spot ETF market flow trends, on Friday.

On the other hand, a drop below $57,000 could bring the $55,000 handle into play. A fall through $55,000 could give the bears a run at the $52,884 support level.

With a 41.40 14-Daily RSI reading, BTC may drop to the $55,000 handle before entering oversold territory.

Ethereum Analysis

ETH sat well below the 50-day and 200-day EMAs, confirming the bearish price trends.

An ETH breakout from the $2,664 resistance level could signal a move toward $2,800. Furthermore, a break above $2,800 could bring the 50-day EMA and the $3,033 resistance level into play. Selling pressure may increase at the $3,033 resistance level. The 50-day EMA is confluent with the resistance level.

US ETH-spot ETF market flow trends also require consideration.

Conversely, an ETH break below $2,500 could signal a fall to the $2,403 support level.

The 14-period Daily RSI reading, 37.81, indicates an ETH drop to the $2,403 support level before entering oversold territory.