Can Bitcoin Reach New All-Time Highs?

The Deeper Pullback Target Zone Was Reached, and an Impulse Higher Unfolded

You must think I am crazy asking that question. But please remember, two weeks ago, see here, we did a deep dive on Bitcoin (BTC) using the Elliott Wave Principle (EWP) and found it had two options:

1. Hold above the February 13 low at $21407, and “… break above the February high at $25.3K to rally more directly to $30K+“.
2. Break below the February 13 low at $21407 to “trigger a setup to as low as $19+/-1K.” (from where the next rally would start).

BTC decided to take the 2^nd path. It broke below the February 13 low on March 9, dropped to as low as $19597 by March 10, and rallied from there in less than five days to yesterday’s intra-day high of $26507. See BTC’s daily price chart with several technical indicators in Figure 1 below.

From a bigger picture perspective, the current price action means BTC did five larger waves up from its November 2022 low (red Waves i, ii, iii, iv, and v) to complete (black) major W-1/a. What does that mean? It has two options again, and both are looking for (much) higher prices.

1. The November low was (Purple) Cycle 4, and these five red waves higher made the 1^st wave of a new bull run to new All-time Highs (Cycle 5). Cycle 5 will subdivide into five waves, with (black) major W-1 and 2 complete. BTC is about to kick off its 3^rd of the 3^rd wave (Red W-iii of black W-3) —the money maker. Yesterday red W-i ended, and red W-ii is now underway.
2. The November low was only (blue) Primary A of (Purple) Cycle 4. A fourth wave is corrective and comprises three waves: A-B-C. In this case, the first wave lower -Primary A- was completed in November 2022, and Primary B is now underway. B-waves comprise three waves as well. In this case, (black) major W-a, b, c. The W-c is now underway, and BTC is about to kick off its 3^rd of the C-wave (Red W-iii of black W-c)—the money maker. Yesterday red W-i ended, and red W-ii is now underway. The larger B-wave, however, will not reach higher than ~$36-46K before the subsequent decline starts.

A Bullish Resolution Continues, but $19597 Must Hold

Thus, both cases are looking for higher prices after a retrace to the red target zone between ideally $21230-23050 for red W-ii. From there, red W-iii can start targeting ideally $32400-34200. For now, that remains our focus. Please note the true power of the EWP is foresight, as few would have foreseen this setup.

However, our premium members reap the benefits of our EW-based foresight, as we informed them on Sunday that a low-risk-high-reward low was most likely in place. See here. Thus, BTC continues to follow our preferred scenario of an EWP-based impulse path. As long as last Friday’s low at $19597 holds, called the floor, we continue to view BTC as intermediate- to long-term Bullish. Thus, we have a ~10% downside risk and at least a 60% upside reward setup with these purely price-based parameters.