Crude & Brent Oil Fundamental Analysis January 21, 2015 – Forecast

By:

Updated: Jan 1, 2011, 00:00 GMT+00:00

Analysis and Recommendations: Crude Oil tumbled $1.14 in the Asian session and continued to hold losses throughout the day. Brent Oil added 21 points but

Analysis and Recommendations:

Crude Oil tumbled $1.14 in the Asian session and continued to hold losses throughout the day. Brent Oil added 21 points but remained well under 50 at 49.05. The International Monetary Fund downgraded its global economic outlook while China reported its slowest growth in a quarter century while better data out of Germany provided some bullish overtones.

Abundant supply and tepid demand for the commodity have sent shock waves through the markets with crude shedding close to 60 per cent of its value since a peak in June. While the low prices are a boon for consumers and businesses in importing countries, the positive effects are being offset by weaker investment and a stronger dollar, the IMF said.

Saudi Arabia can cope with low oil prices for “at least eight years”, a former longstanding adviser to the kingdom’s oil minister has said. Mohammad Al Sabban, who advised the kingdom on oil policy for 27 years until 2014, told the BBC the kingdom was “worried” about the sustained low prices but its policy was to maintain market share. “Saudi Arabia can sustain these low oil prices for at least eight years,” Sabban told the BBC’s World Business Report.

Saudi Oil Minister Ali al-Naimi met US Deputy Energy Secretary Elizabeth Sherwood-Randall on Tuesday in Riyadh where they discussed oil markets, the official Saudi Press Agency (SPA) reported.

SPA gave no specific details about the meeting in a brief statement but said the officials looked into cooperation on energy and environmental issues, climate change, solar energy use and mutual investments.

A US energy department spokesman said in addition to those areas, the two officials discussed global oil markets.

FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more up to the data analysis and information in our weekly reports.

WEEKLY

This Week in Petroleum
Release Schedule: Wednesday @ 1:00 p.m. EST (schedule)

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update
Release Schedule: Monday between 4:00 and 5:00 p.m. EST (schedule)

Weekly Petroleum Status Report
Release Schedule: The wpsrsummary.pdf, overview.pdf, and Tables 1-14 in CSV and XLS formats, are released to the Web site after 10:30 a.m. (Eastern Time) on Wednesday.

Today’s economic releases actual vs. forecast:

Cur.	Event	Actual	Forecast	Previous
NZD	NZIER Business	23%		19%
CNY	Fixed Asset Investment	15.7%	15.8%	15.8%
CNY	GDP (QoQ) (Q4 )	1.5%	1.7%	1.9%
CNY	GDP (YoY) (Q4 )	7.3%	7.2%	7.3%
CNY	Industrial Production	7.9%	7.4%	7.2%
EUR	German PPI (MoM)	-0.7%	-0.4%	0.0%
EUR	German ZEW Current	22.4	14.8	10.0
EUR	German ZEW Economic	48.4	40.0	34.9
EUR	ZEW Sentiment	45.2	37.6	31.8

Upcoming Economic Events that you should be monitoring:

Wednesday, January 21st

Cur.	Event	Actual	Forecast	Previous
NZD	CPI (QoQ) (Q4 )		0.0%	0.3%
JPY	BoJ Press Conference
GBP	Average Earnings Index		1.7%	1.4%
GBP	Claimant Count		-25.0K	-26.9K
GBP	MPC Meeting Minutes
USD	Building Permits (Dec)		1.055M	1.052M
CAD	BoC Monetary Policy
CAD	Interest Rate Decision		1.00%	1.00%