Crude Oil Price Forecast – Crude Ended the Week Near the High

Crude Oil Prices Forecast Video for 10.04.23

WTI Crude Oil Technical Analysis

The West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil market has been in the same area all week, and although the futures pits were closed on Friday, you can read a lot from the week as it played out. The market gapped higher after OPEC announced a 1.6 million barrels per day cut starting in May. This massive gap had the market slamming against the 200-Day EMA, and since then we have been in a very tight consolidation range.

While the market was closed, the Non-Farm Payroll announcement came out of the United States, basically as expected. In other words, it will more likely than not have very little if any influence on the crude oil market itself. With that being said, there is no catalyst to see a pullback quite yet, but there is a major gap underneath that remains to be filled. If we were to break down below the bottom of the candlesticks of the previous week, I think at that point WTI would very likely drop down to the 50-Day EMA, just below the $76 level. On the other hand, if we turn around and take out the 200-Day EMA on a daily close, then we could go looking towards the $87.50 region.

Brent Crude Oil Technical Analysis

Brent markets of course look very much the same, as we had seen the market gap higher at the open on Monday, and then just essentially went back and forth to show signs of hesitation. The market seems to be content on hanging above the $85 level, and just below the 200-Day EMA. This suggests to me that we are going to see some type of squeeze sooner or later, and if and when we do, it’s likely that we should get a relatively straightforward trade.

On a break of the lows of the week, then I think the market goes looking to fill the gap, meaning that it will drop down to about $80.25 or so. On the other hand, if we turn around and take out the 200-Day EMA, the initial target will be the $90 level. Anything above the $90 level opens up the possibility of a move to $95. That being said, most of the time gaps get filled in the futures market, so that is most certainly something worth thinking about.

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