The crude oil market has rallied a bit during the trading session on Thursday to show signs of life, but at this point I think we’ve got more of a “fade the rally” type of situation.
The West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil market has rallied a bit during the session on Thursday, as it looks like we are trying to come back to the previous support level. That makes quite a bit of sense because there’s going to be a bit of “market memory” of that area, and therefore I would expect to see a certain amount of selling pressure in that general vicinity. Signs of exhaustion will get sold into, and therefore we could go much lower. Even if we were to break above there, it’s really not until we break above the 50-Day EMA that I would be interested in buying this market, because demand has been absolutely destroyed.
Brent markets also have rallied during the trading session and could be looking to get back to the $80 level. I think that we are a bit oversold in both of these markets, so it makes quite a bit of sense that we would see a bit of a bounce. That bounce should offer fresh opportunities for sellers to get involved, unless of course suddenly we were to see some type of major shift in demand.
Ultimately, this is a market that will continue to see a lot of volatility and erratic moves, especially as we are getting fairly close to the end of the year, a time that typically has very low volume trading. All of these things put together could cause some issues over the next several weeks, so be cautious with your position size, but unless something fundamentally changes, I would have no real interest in buying.
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Being FXEmpire’s analyst since the early days of the website, Chris has over 20 years of experience across various markets and assets – currencies, indices, and commodities. He is a proprietary trader as well trading institutional accounts.