Natural Gas and Oil Forecast: Prices Climb as U.S. Sanctions Fuel Supply Fears

By:

Arslan Ali

Updated: Apr 23, 2025, 10:36 GMT+00:00

Key Points:

Oil prices climb for a second day as U.S. sanctions on Iran and a 4.6M barrel inventory drawdown tighten supply.
Natural gas stalls below $3.05, with price action compressed inside a descending channel and volatility tightening.
Brent oil eyes $70+ after breaking out of a multi-week downtrend; EMAs signal bullish strength ahead.

In this article:

Natural Gas

+0.87%

WTI Oil

+0.30%

Brent Oil

+0.52%

Market Overview

Oil prices advanced for a second straight session Wednesday, driven by renewed geopolitical tensions and a sharper-than-expected decline in U.S. crude inventories. The U.S. imposed fresh sanctions on Iran’s energy export network, unsettling global supply outlooks.

Benchmark crude futures were also supported by an API report showing a 4.6 million barrel drawdown in domestic crude stocks, far exceeding analysts’ expectations of an 800,000 barrel decline.

Meanwhile, traders were encouraged by a softer stance from Washington on tariffs and monetary policy, fueling hopes of economic stabilization. Collectively, these developments have injected upward pressure into both oil and natural gas markets.

Natural Gas Price Forecast

Natural Gas (NG) Price Chart

Natural gas futures are stuck around $3.02, showing little direction as price compresses within a narrowing downtrend channel. The $3.05 pivot remains a key hurdle, with sellers defending that zone for days. Immediate resistance is stacked at $3.05 and $3.13, while support rests at $2.957 and $2.899.

The 50 EMA sits at $3.07, still well below the 200 EMA at $3.30—signaling persistent downside pressure. Until bulls can break above the $3.05–$3.07 resistance band and challenge the descending trendline, the bias remains cautious.

A breakdown below $2.957 could accelerate bearish momentum. Volatility is tightening, so a decisive move is likely just around the corner.

WTI Oil Price Forecast

WTI Price Chart

WTI crude is hovering around $64.28, nudging just above its pivot point at $63.76 after a steady climb through April’s rising trendline. What’s catching traders’ eyes now is the narrowing gap between the 50 EMA ($62.82) and the 200 EMA ($63.52)—a potential bullish crossover that could draw fresh momentum buyers if confirmed.

Price action has pierced the upper boundary of an ascending triangle, hinting at a possible breakout continuation. Immediate resistance is seen at $65.37, followed by $66.87. Support rests at $63.76 and lower at $61.81.

The structure looks constructive, and with the EMAs tightening and triangle breakout in play, the path of least resistance may be to the upside.

Brent Oil Price Forecast

Brent Price Chart

Brent crude is edging higher near $68.06 after breaking out of a multi-week descending trendline and reclaiming key resistance at $67.23. Price is now challenging the upper boundary of the consolidation range, with a potential run toward $69.45 and $70.86 if bulls maintain control.

The 50 EMA at $66.54 is curling higher, while the 200 EMA at $67.23 has just been reclaimed—a development that hints at a bullish crossover in the making. The breakout from a textbook ascending triangle pattern adds further conviction to the upside case.

Immediate support sits at $67.23, followed by $65.61. If volume holds up, the path toward $72.27 looks increasingly plausible.

About the Author

Arslan Aliauthor

Arslan is a finance MBA and also holds an MPhil degree in behavioral finance. An expert in financial analysis and investor psychology, Arslan uses his academic background to bring valuable insights about market sentiment and whether instruments are likely to be overbought or oversold.

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