Crude oil markets continue to try to stabilize as we have hung around the $76 level in the WTI grade, and the $80 level in the Brent grade.
The West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil market has shown itself to be somewhat resilient, forming a bullish flag over the last couple of weeks. The question now is whether or not we can continue to go higher. I do think we can, but I’m not necessarily bullish on oil. I just think that we have oversold the market to the point where there probably needs to be a pullback in the downtrend. Because of this, I think you probably have a situation where we have a lot of noisy behavior, and perhaps move to the 50-Day EMA at best.
Brent markets also look as if they are trying to rally from here, right around the $80 level. That being said, the market could eventually rally toward a 50-Day EMA as well, or perhaps $85 level. I think this is a simple bounce from oversold conditions, as it is worth noting that large speculative bets have been closed out as we head into the end of the year. Quite frankly, that could be what this is all about, people trying to collect profits before they close out the books. Either way, this is a market that is oversold so a little bit of a bounce probably makes quite a bit of sense.
With all this being said, I think there might be a short-term pop, but at the first signs of exhaustion I anticipate that there will be traders willing to get involved and start shorting as well. With this, the market still looks like it’s vulnerable, but in the short term we may have a little bit of a reprieve.
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Being FXEmpire’s analyst since the early days of the website, Chris has over 20 years of experience across various markets and assets – currencies, indices, and commodities. He is a proprietary trader as well trading institutional accounts.