The crude oil markets have fallen a bit during the week, testing the bottom of the symmetrical triangle that we have been in for some time. Because of this, the market looks like it is going to remain a bit rangebound.
The crude oil market in the West Texas intermediate grade has fallen a bit during the course of the week to test what I see as a symmetrical triangle, only to turn around and bounce again. Ultimately, I think the market looks very range bound with a bit of synchronicity at the $80 level between bears and bulls, and therefore I think that is your magnet for price.
Typically speaking, crude oil tends to be a little bit more positive during the summertime, so this does make a certain amount of sense that we continue to bounce towards there. However, even if the triangle gets broken, it would not surprise me at all to see this market bounce around between $75 on the bottom, and $85 on the top. Crude oil likes to sit in $10 increments, and that just looks like what we’re doing right now.
The Brent market has also pulled back to test the bottom of the symmetrical triangle and the 200-week EMA. In this market, I like the $84 level as your magnet for price, as it were, as it seems to be where the buyers and the sellers meet up. I think in this environment, somewhere between $85 and $95 gets to be a little bit expensive and a little bit difficult to break through.
Underneath, I see the $75 level as a massive amount of support just waiting to happen. In general, I do believe that oil is supported right now, but I don’t think we’re going to see explosive huge moves to the upside, barring some type of geopolitical outcome of elections or maybe some type of attack in the Middle East.
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Being FXEmpire’s analyst since the early days of the website, Chris has over 20 years of experience across various markets and assets – currencies, indices, and commodities. He is a proprietary trader as well trading institutional accounts.