Crude oil markets have tested a major support level this past week, and what would have been somewhat shortened and thin holiday trading in the futures markets.
The West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil market has fallen a bit during the course of the week but continues to find support in the same general vicinity that it has a couple months ago. At this point, the 200-Week EMA is hanging about as well, so it’ll be worth noting whether or not we can continue to go higher. At this point, we break above the top of the weekly candlestick, a return to the 50-Week EMA does make a certain amount of sense. Ultimately, if we break down below here, then it’s likely that crude oil really starts to fall apart, perhaps making a move down to the $65 level.
Brent markets have also touched a support level near the $82.50 level, suggesting that we are going to continue to see a lot of noisy behavior, as we are either forming a bit of a “double bottom”, or we are getting ready to break down rather significantly. The 200-Week EMA sits near the $76.50 level, so I think at that point in time we really start to question the entire trend. We are either consolidating, or we are getting ready to break down.
At this point, a lot of people are starting to focus on demand as opposed to supply, but it should be said that supply is getting rather tight. If the market has to witness a major global recession, that could be reason enough for oil to drop. I anticipate a lot of noisy behavior regardless, so position sizing will be crucial but at this point it certainly looks as if the buyers are trying to step things up.
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Being FXEmpire’s analyst since the early days of the website, Chris has over 20 years of experience across various markets and assets – currencies, indices, and commodities. He is a proprietary trader as well trading institutional accounts.