FTSE 100 Index falters as Dax Index gains, investors eye US inflation data, Fed, BoE and ECB Rate Cuts possibilities.
Investors in European markets exhibited caution with Germany’s DAX advancing modestly while the UK’s FTSE 100 retreated, all eyes on the forthcoming U.S. inflation data. This hesitancy follows a mixed bag of economic updates, with the Euro Zone’s GDP showing a slight contraction, countered by a rise in employment figures.
The DAX’s gain reflects a mix of corporate success and broader economic sentiment. Notably, the German ZEW Economic Sentiment Index rose to 9.8, signaling improved investor confidence. Meanwhile, the ECB is expected to hold interest rates steady, with speculation of rate cuts emerging mid-next year. Corporate wins, like Glencore’s acquisition and Delivery Hero’s forecast hike, fueled positive movement.
The Euro Zone’s GDP shrank by a marginal 0.1%, yet employment increased by 0.3%, suggesting an atypical dissociation between GDP and employment trends. This unusual pattern underscores the complexity of the current economic landscape in the Euro Zone.
In the UK, aerospace and defense setbacks, exemplified by Rolls Royce’s shares dip, contrasted with mining sector gains, particularly Glencore’s rise after a major acquisition. Wage growth data indicated a continued challenge for the Bank of England’s inflation efforts.
The UK’s labor market shows signs of cooling, with a slight decrease in job vacancies and wage growth, amidst ongoing inflationary pressures. Economists suggest a gradual, not drastic, labor market slowdown, with real wage growth not expected to pick up significantly until inflation targets are met around 2025.
The DAX Index is currently demonstrating resilience, trading above the crucial 50-day moving average of 15287.37 and edging closer to the 200-day average at 15644.52. This proximity to the longer-term moving average suggests that the DAX is at a pivotal juncture, with potential to solidify a longer-term uptrend.
The current price rests just above the minor support level, indicating that the market is maintaining its recent gains.
With the index positioned between the minor support and minor resistance levels, the sentiment in the market could be cautiously optimistic, as traders may be looking for signs of sustained momentum to confirm a bullish trend or indications of reversal to signal a bearish turn.
James Hyerczyk is a U.S. based seasoned technical analyst and educator with over 40 years of experience in market analysis and trading, specializing in chart patterns and price movement. He is the author of two books on technical analysis and has a background in both futures and stock markets.