Dax Index News: Tariff Relief Lifts Outlook as ECB Rate Cut Bets Rise – Forecast Today

DAX Opens Higher on Trade Optimism

Germany’s DAX opened higher on Tuesday, up 0.69%, lifted by tariff relief signals from Washington, though broader sentiment remained fragile.

German wholesale price trends supported bets on a 25-basis point ECB rate cut on April 17. Wholesale prices rose 1.3% year-on-year in March, down from 1.6% in February. Wholesalers typically reduce prices as demand weakens, passing savings on to customers, and signaling a softer inflation outlook.

Mario Cavaggioni, Portfolio Manager at HY Market, commented:

“Furniture prices recovered from deflation but still in line with an inflation close to ECB target…”

A more dovish ECB stance could pressure the EUR, partially offsetting the effect of US tariffs on demand for German goods. A weaker EUR lowers the price of German goods. Last week, the EUR/USD pair soared 3.61% to $1.13583 amid deteriorating sentiment toward the US economy and US dollar assets.

Sector Performance: Autos Shine on Tariff Optimism

This week, President Trump hinted at a potential pause on auto tariffs to allow carmakers more time to establish operations in the US. The announcement boosted demand for auto stocks.

Continental AG led the gains, surging 3.15%, while BMW and Mercedes-Benz Group rallied 2.73% and 2.79%, respectively, in early trade. Daimler Truck Holding, Porsche, and Volkswagen also posted strong gains.

Expert Views on the Impact of Tariffs on German Goods

Daniel Kral, Europe Macro Specialist at Oxford Economics, commented on the recent tariff-triggered market volatility, stating:

“Quite the rollercoaster re US tariffs over the past 10 days. Among EU countries, by far the most affected is Slovakia due to its high share of car exports. But should 25% tariffs on pharma materialize (pre-announced already), then Ireland will shoot up from being the least affected to the most affected.”

Kral also noted that Germany and Italy have sizeable exposures but Germany has a much higher concentration in sensitive sectors, including energy, pharma & organic chemicals, steel, and vehicles & parts.

US Markets Advance on Tariff Relief

US equity markets started the week on a positive footing, with investors reacting to the temporary US tariff exemptions on selected electronic goods. The Dow and the S&P 500 climbed 0.78% and 0.79%, respectively, on April 14, while the Nasdaq Composite Index rose 0.64%.

Apple Inc. (AAPL) rallied 2.15%, while Tesla (TSLA) gained just 0.02%.

NY Empire State Manufacturing in Focus

Later in the US session on April 15, the NY Empire State Manufacturing Index will give insights into the demand environment. Economists forecast the Index to rise from -20 in March to -12.4 in April.

A better-than-expected reading could ease fears of a tariff-induced drop in demand, boosting demand for risk assets. Conversely, an unexpected fall could fuel recession fears, potentially weighing on DAX-listed stocks.

Beyond the data, trade developments and Fed chatter could influence market sentiment. While tariffs may weigh on risk sentiment, dovish Fed signals could limit the effect of tariffs on risk assets.

Near-Term Outlook

The DAX’s trajectory will depend on trade tensions and central bank forward guidance:

• Bearish Scenario: Rising trade tensions and hawkish central bank rhetoric could push the DAX toward 20,000.
• Bullish Scenario: Easing trade tensions and dovish central bank stances could drive the DAX toward 21,500.

DAX Technical Indicators

Daily Chart

The DAX remained above the 200-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) after the positive open but stayed below the 50-day EMA—highlighting short-term downside risks.

A sustained move above 21,000 could clear the path to 21,500. A break above that level would bring the 50-day EMA into focus.

On the downside, a fall through 20,500 may trigger a decline toward the 200-day EMA. A breach of that support could open the door to the 19,675 support level.

Final Thoughts

The DAX remains sensitive to inflation figures, trade headlines, and central bank signals. With elevated volatility, traders should closely monitor macroeconomic indicators, central bank guidance, and technical price trends here.

Stay tuned as ECB signals and Fed commentary continue to influencing the market outlook.