ETH Bulls to Retarget $1,800 on Ethereum Staking Inflow Trends

Key Insights:

• It was a bullish Friday session for bitcoin (BTC) and ethereum (ETH), with BTC revisiting the $25,000 handle for the second consecutive session.
• Easing investor jitters over regulatory risk fueled a breakout session, with no US economic indicators to distract investors.
• ETH and BTC found further price support this morning.

Ethereum (ETH) rose by 3.42% on Friday. Reversing a 2.21% loss from Thursday, ETH ended the day at $1,694. ETH revisited $1,700 for a second consecutive session.

A mixed start to the day saw ETH fall to an early low of $1,630. Steering clear of the First Major Support Level (S1) at $1,600, ETH rallied to a late high of $1,722. ETH broke through the First Major Resistance Level (R1) at $1,709 before easing back to end the day at $1,694.

On Friday, bitcoin (BTC) rallied by 4.48%. Reversing a 3.24% slide from Thursday, BTC ended the day at $24,582. BTC revisited $25,000 levels for the second consecutive session and the second time since August.

A mixed start to the day saw BTC fall to a first-hour low of $23,350. Steering clear of the First Major Support Level (S1) at $22,959, BTC rose to a late high of $25,023. BTC broke through the First Major Resistance Level (R1) at $24,667 before easing back to end the day at $24,582.

An Uptrend in ETH Staking Reflects Easing Concerns over US Staking Ban

On Friday, easing regulatory risk jitters delivered support to BTC, ETH, and the broader crypto market.

Following the SEC move against Kraken and crypto staking services, Ethereum staking experienced a sharp dip in staking inflows. However, in the days following the news, staking inflows resumed the upward trend, reflecting easing fears of a US ban on staking that would have a material impact on ETH and the near-term bullish trend.

According to CryptoQuant, daily ETH staking inflows fell to a February low of 4,896 (13/02/23) Ethereum before rebounding to a February high of 33,280 Ethereum (February 14).

Additionally, the upward trend in staking inflows reflects investor sentiment toward the Shanghai hard fork.

While sentiment toward the Shanghai hard fork remains bullish, downside risks remain. A renewed SEC focus on US crypto staking would impact investor appetite. There is also the risk of a more hawkish Fed interest rate trajectory that could weigh on investor optimism toward the US economy.

The Day Ahead

Investors should also continue to track the crypto news wires for SEC v Ripple, FTX, Genesis, and Silvergate Bank updates. However, SEC activity and US lawmaker chatter will also need consideration.

For Ethereum, investors should monitor developer updates from testing the Shapella testnet. Reports of bugs or a possible delay to the anticipated Shanghai hard fork in March would be ETH price negative.

Ethereum (ETH) Price Action

At the time of writing, ETH was up 0.30% to $1,700. A bullish start to the day saw ETH rise from an early low of $1,693 to a high of $1,705.

Technical Indicators

ETH needs to avoid a fall through the $1,682 pivot to target the First Major Resistance Level (R1) at $1,734 and the Thursday high of $1,743. A move through the Friday high of $1,722 would signal a breakout session. However, Shanghai hard fork updates and the crypto news wires should be ETH-friendly to support a breakout.

In the event of an extended rally, the bulls would likely test the Second Major Resistance Level (R2) at $1,774 and resistance at $1,800. The Third Major Resistance Level (R3) sits at $1,866.

A fall through the pivot would bring the First Major Support Level (S1) at $1,642 into play. However, barring another broad-based crypto market sell-off, ETH should avoid sub-$1,600 and the Second Major Support Level (S2) at $1,590. The Third Major Support Level (S3) sits at $1,498.

Looking at the EMAs and the 4-hourly candlestick chart (below), it was a bullish signal. Ethereum sat above the 50-day EMA, currently at $1,613. The 50-day EMA pulled away from the 100-day EMA, with the 100-day EMA widening from the 200-day EMA, delivering bullish signals.

A hold above S1 ($1,642) and the 50-day EMA ($1,613) would support a breakout from R1 ($1,743) to target R2 ($1,774) and $1,800. However, a fall through S1 ($1,642) would give the bears a run at the 50-day ($1,613) and 100-day ($1,600) EMAs. A fall through the 50-day EMA would send a bearish signal.

Bitcoin (BTC) Price Action

At the time of writing, BTC was up 0.13% to $24,613. A mixed start to the day saw BTC rise to an early high of $24,790 before falling to a low of $24,524.

Technical Indicators

BTC needs to avoid a fall through the $24,318 pivot to target the First Major Resistance Level (R1) at $25,287. A return to $25,000 would signal a breakout session. The crypto news wires need to be crypto-friendly to support an extended rally.

In the event of an extended rally, BTC would likely test the Second Major Resistance Level (R2) at $25,991 and resistance at $27,000. The Third Major Resistance Level (R3) sits at $27,664.

A fall through the pivot would bring the First Major Support Level (S1) at $23,614 into play. However, barring a crypto event-fueled crypto sell-off, BTC should avoid sub-$23,000 and the Second Major Support Level (S2) at $22,645.

The Third Major Support Level (S3) sits at $20,972.

Looking at the EMAs and the 4-hourly candlestick chart (below), it was a bullish signal. BTC sat above the 50-day EMA ($23,138). The 50-day EMA pulled away from the 100-day EMA, with the 100-day EMA widening from the 200-day EMA, delivering bullish signals.

A hold above S1 ($23,614) and the 50-day EMA ($23,138) would support a breakout from R1 ($25,287) to target R2 ($25,991) and $27,000. However, a fall through S1 ($23,614) and 50-day EMA ($23,138) would give the bears a run at the 100-day EMA ($22,828) and S2 ($22,645). A fall through the 50-day EMA would send a bearish signal.