ETH Bulls to Target $2,100 on Easing Recession Fears and Staking Stats

Key Insights:

• On Friday, ETH joined the broader crypto market in a bullish session, gaining 6.28% to end the day at $1,996.
• US economic indicators and staking statistics supported an ETH return to $2,000.
• However, the technical indicators remained bullish, signaling a return to $2,100.

Ethereum (ETH) rallied by 6.28% on Friday. Reversing a 1.47% loss from Thursday, ETH ended the day at $1,996. ETH revisited the $2,000 handle for the first time since April 19.

A mixed start to the day saw ETH slip to an early low of $1,876. Steering clear of the First Major Support Level (S1) at $1,858, ETH rallied to a late afternoon high of $2,000. ETH broke through the Major Resistance Levels to end the day at $1,996.

US Jobs Report Eased Recession Jitters but Leave Fed Rate Hikes Subdued

It was a busy Friday session for the global financial markets. The all-important US Jobs Report drew interest ahead of next week’s US CPI Report.

Nonfarm payrolls jumped by 253k in April versus a forecasted 180k increase. In March, nonfarm payrolls rose by 165k. Significantly, average hourly earnings were up 4.4% year-over-year versus 4.3% in March. Economists forecast average hourly earnings to increase by 4.2%.

As a result of the better-than-expected NFP number, the US unemployment rate fell from 3.5% to 3.4%. Economists forecast the unemployment rate to rise to 3.6%.

The Jobs Report eased recessionary fears, supporting riskier assets. However, market bets on a 25-basis point Fed interest rate hike in June remained subdued. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, the probability of a 25-basis point June interest rate hike rose from 0.0% to 8.5%. The Jobs Report did wipe out bets of a June rate cut, with the chances of a rate cut falling from 9.2% to 0.0%.

While the combination of easing recessionary fears and subdued bets of another Fed rate hike delivered support, sentiment could change on Wednesday. The US CPI Report has to show softer inflation to keep the Fed hawks silent.

ETH Staking and Withdrawal Turned Bullish

Staking statistics and the withdrawal profile supported a more bullish session.

According to CryptoQuant, staking fell from 109,792 ETH on Thursday to 67,296 on Friday. However, inflows remained elevated relative to historical Friday levels.

The total value-staked continued rising, supported by ETH staking inflows.

Overnight, the withdrawal profile was bullish. A lower volume of principal ETH withdrawals and a projection of modest principal ETH withdrawals are bullish price indicators.

The staking inflows delivered a positive net staking balance. On Friday, the net ETH staking balance stood at a surplus of 64,890 ETH, equivalent to $122.78 million. Deposits totaled 120,880 ETH versus withdrawals of 56,000 ETH.

According to TokenUnlocks, total pending withdrawals stood at 0.282 million ETH, equivalent to approximately $0.536 billion.

The Day Ahead

ETH staking statistics and the withdrawal profile actuals and projections will remain focal points. This morning, withdrawal projections are bullish for the session, with principal withdrawals falling below normal levels.

However, the crypto news wires will continue to influence. SEC v Ripple case-related updates and Binance and Coinbase (COIN)-related news would move the dial.

Ethereum Price Action

At the time of writing, ETH was down 1.22% to $1,971. A mixed start to the day saw ETH rise to an early high of $2,020 before falling to a low of $1,965.

ETH Technical Indicators

Resistance & Support Levels

ETH needs to avoid the $1,957 pivot to retarget the First Major Resistance Level (R1) at $2,039. A move through the morning high of $2,020 would signal a breakout session. However, ETH staking statistics and the crypto news wires must support a breakout.

In the event of an extended rally, the bulls would likely test the Second Major Resistance Level (R2) at $2,081 and resistance at $2,100. The Third Major Resistance Level (R3) sits at $2,205.

A fall through the pivot would bring the First Major Support Level (S1) at $1,915 into play. However, barring a crypto market sell-off, ETH should avoid sub-$1,900 and the Second Major Support Level (S2) at $1,833. The Third Major Support Level (S3) sits at $1,709.

Looking at the EMAs and the 4-hourly candlestick chart (below), it was a bullish signal. Ethereum sat above the 100-day EMA, currently at $1,899. The 50-day EMA converged on the 100-day EMA, with the 100-day EMA widening from the 200-day EMA, delivering bullish signals.

A bullish cross of the 50-day EMA through the 100-day EMA would support a breakout from R1 ($2,039) to target R2 ($2,081) and $2,100. However, a fall through S1 ($1,915) would bring the EMAs into view. A fall through the 50-day EMA ($1,897) would send a bearish signal.