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EUR/USD, GBP/USD, DXY Price Forecast: Dollar Dives Under $103; Rebound Next?
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Key Points:
- US dollar weakens as unemployment rises to 4.3%, impacting currency market trends.
- European Services PMI reports could boost euro if figures surpass expectations this week.
- US ISM Services PMI at 51.4 may influence the Dollar Index and market sentiment.
In this article:
Last week’s US economic data painted a mixed picture. Average hourly earnings rose by 0.2%, slightly below the expected 0.3%. Non-farm payrolls increased by only 114,000, far short of the anticipated 176,000, and the unemployment rate climbed to 4.3%, the highest since November 2021.
This combination of weaker job growth and rising unemployment suggests potential pressure on the US dollar, which fell to 102.921, down 0.23% in the Dollar Index.
Events Ahead
The focus this week shifts to the European Services PMI reports, which could shape the EUR/USD outlook. Strong PMI data from Spain, Italy, France, and Germany could boost the euro, especially if figures surpass forecasts. Meanwhile, the GBP/USD pair will be influenced by the UK Services PMI, with expectations set at 52.4.
The US ISM Services PMI, expected at 51.4, and upcoming Fed commentary will be pivotal for the Dollar Index. A stronger-than-expected ISM reading could support the dollar, reversing recent trends.
Market participants should closely watch these data releases, as they will likely dictate currency movements and market sentiment.
The index remains bearish below $103.012, but a break above this pivot could shift the bias to bullish.
EUR/USD Technical Forecast
The EUR/USD is trading at $1.09086, down 0.13% on the 4-hour chart, maintaining a bearish stance. The pivot point is $1.09000, with immediate resistance at $1.09384, followed by $1.09705 and $1.09983. Key support levels are $1.08765, $1.08583, and $1.07811.
The 50-day EMA at $1.08483 and the 200-day EMA at $1.08309 suggest a bullish trend above $1.08580. A break below this support could trigger a sharp selling trend while maintaining above this level could sustain the bullish momentum.
GBP/USD Technical Forecast
About the Author
Arslan Aliauthor
Arslan, a webinar speaker and derivatives analyst, has an MBA in Finance and MPhil in Behavioral Finance. He guides financial analysis, trading, and cryptocurrency forecasting. Expert in trading psychology and sentiment.
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