Market Overview
On Friday, the Non-Farm Employment Change report showed an increase of 206K jobs in June, surpassing the expected 191K but revised down from 218K in May. The Unemployment Rate ticked up to 4.1% from 4.0%, while Average Hourly Earnings growth was 0.3%, down from the previous 0.4%.
This data has stirred mixed reactions in the currency markets. The Dollar Index (DXY) is hovering around 105.008, down slightly by 0.04%, reflecting the market’s cautious sentiment. The EUR/USD pair is currently trading at $1.08182, slightly up by 0.10%.
The stronger-than-expected job growth in the US has provided some support for the dollar, but the increased unemployment rate and slowing wage growth are tempering enthusiasm.
Events Ahead
Looking ahead, Germany will release its Trade Balance figures, with a forecast of 24.9B, up from the previous 22.2B. This could provide support for the euro if the figures meet or exceed expectations. Additionally, the Sentix Investor Confidence index, expected at -0.6, will be closely monitored for signs of economic sentiment in the Eurozone.
In the UK, MPC Member Haskel’s speech will be scrutinized for any hints on future monetary policy. The BRC Retail Sales Monitor y/y, with a previous figure of 0.4%, will also be a significant indicator of retail health.
In the US, the Consumer Credit m/m report, expected to show a rise to 9.7B from 6.4B, will provide insights into consumer spending behaviour. These upcoming events will be critical in shaping the near-term direction of the EUR/USD, GBP/USD, and Dollar Index.