EUR/USD Price Forecast – Euro To Trade Rangebound Ahead of EU PMI Updates

The EURUSD pair last Friday saw recovery price action in the early half of trading session as risk aversion eased in the global market. While investors risk appetite rose across the globe with recovering US T.Yields, the pair failed to see solid recovery rally. Euro bulls lost their hold over price action near the mid-1.12 handle. As the third vote on PM May’s deal failed to win the support of enough lawmakers, Brexit woes took center stage near E.O.D. Impact from dovish ECB, mixed Euro area macro data and concerns of an economic slowdown in Europe still lingered in the market and this provided support to USD bulls pushing the pair back towards intra-day lows.

Price Action Remains in Bear’s Territory

The pair opened for the week with a gap up move but the price still remains well below mid 1.12 handle. Having declined below multiple support price levels that kept price action in check over the last six months, the pair has now attained a bearish breakout in simplest terms. With bulls and bears taking on a battle of attrition, news and macro data-driven momentum resulted in EURO losing all its gains and falling below multiple key price handles and this has given USD an edge over the common currency. Neither Brexit nor Sino-U.S. trade talk seems to have made solid progress and this adds strength to EURO bears. This has resulted in investors holding back from placing major bets ahead of key events scheduled to take place this week.

As of writing this article, EURUSD pair is trading flat at 1.1222 up by 0.05% on the day. Investors now await macro data updates for short term profit opportunities. On the release front, both calendars are highly active today. The EU calendar will see the release of Manufacturing PMI from Italy, France, Germany & EURO area and also EU area’s CPI, unemployment rate while US calendar will see the release of core retail sales data, ISM manufacturing PMI and business inventories data updates. Forecast hints at a mixed outcome for the EU macro calendar, a dovish outcome in the EU calendar updates today will lead to the pair declining below 1.1200 handle while positive outcome will help the pair reclaim hold above 1.1250 handle. Expected support and resistance for the pair are at 1.1210, 1.1175, 1.1150 and 1.1250, 1.1280,  1.1310 respectively.

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