The oversold condition in the US dollar seems to be a factor in the early Thursday trading of Forex markets. This is a calming that is probably somewhat needed at the moment.
The Euro has rallied ever so slightly against the US dollar, but it does look like it is going to continue to see some issues here around the 1.08 level. It does make a certain amount of sense because quite frankly, we’ve gone straight up in the air with no breaks whatsoever, and therefore I’d have to believe that sooner or later we will have to have a bit of a pullback.
Whether or not this ends up being a trend change is a completely different question, but right now I think a pullback is more likely than not. That pullback could lead to more buying opportunities, I would certainly expect that from a technical analysis standpoint, but right now, I think it’s a little rich to chase this trade all the way up here.
The US dollar has broken through the last vestiges of support against the Japanese yen. So, I just don’t see how you get overly excited about trying to buy the dollar here. I do think that we’re probably going to continue to fall despite the fact that people are paying swap to short this pair. With that being said, sometimes that’s just the way it is, and you have to deal with it. So, with this I believe that we are probably heading to the 145 yen level.
The Australian dollar has rallied a little bit during the early hours on Thursday as well, but like everything else, it’s losing strength against the US dollar in what can only be thought of as a overextended move to the upside. So, with that, I do think we pull back towards the 0.63 level, an area that of course has been important multiple times in the past and one would have to assume that there will be a little bit of market memory there to at least attempt to support the Aussie dollar.
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Chris is a proprietary trader with more than 20 years of experience across various markets, including currencies, indices and commodities. As a senior analyst at FXEmpire since the website’s early days, he offers readers advanced market perspectives to navigate today’s financial landscape with confidence.