EUR/USD Weekly Price Forecast – Euro Continues to Put Traders to Sleep

Euro vs US Dollar Weekly Technical Analysis

The Euro initially rallied during the week but gave back gains as it looks like we are struggling to stay above the 1.07 level. At this point in time, I think we are more or less just dealing with the summertime malaise. It’s not necessarily a market that I’m really that interested in, to be honest with you.

If we break down below the lows of the last three weeks, it does open up a move to 1.06. And if I had to bet, I would say that’s probably where we go. But the beauty of the Forex market is I don’t have to bet on this crummy pair. This is a pair that has done nothing for two years, except for trade in the range that I have marked, and I don’t see that changing.

The Federal Reserve got another piece of data that they prefer during the session on Friday, the Core PCE Price Index, and it came in as expected. So that means steady as she goes for interest rate policy would be my guess. ECB on the other hand has cut rates. So that might be part of the downward pressure on the Euro, but it doesn’t look like we’re ready to go anywhere. And with that, I think longer term traders are better off just using the euro as an indication as to what the dollar is going to do against other currencies.

Quite frankly, there’s more money to be made in most emerging market currencies now than there are some of these non-volatile major currency pairs. It’s just not really worth it unless you are a short-term trader and you’re looking to scout for three or four pips at a time, which is a great way over the longer term to destroy your account. So, I look at the weekly chart, more or less at this point, as a bit of an indicator.

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