EUR/JPY Weekly Fundamental Analysis January 13 – 17, 2014 Forecast

Weekly Analysis and Recommendations:

The EUR/JPY remained in a tight range at 142.21. The pair moved between 141.50 and a 143.18 as the euro gained a bit of momentum after the ECB held rates and policy. In contrast to the Fed, the European Central Bank has kept holding out the prospect of yet more stimulus. On Thursday, ECB President Mario Draghi underlined his determination to act should deflation become a real risk or rising money rates threaten a fragile recovery.

Eighteen months since the European Central Bank (ECB) president declared he would do “whatever it takes” to protect the euro, fresh signs are emerging that his ad-libbed lines in a July 2012 London speech still serve as a potent force.
The confidence Draghi engendered helped dissipate a crisis that brought the very existence of the euro into question. 

Among the reasons to turn upbeat: Ireland this week sold bonds for the first time after graduating from a three-year bailout programme. Portugal and perhaps even Greece may soon follow to market. Yields on Spanish 10-year government debt fell to the lowest since 2009, the Stoxx Europe 600 Index this week reached its highest in almost five years and a euro bought the most dollars in three.

China’s trade with Japan fell 5.1 percent in 2013 to $312.5 billion, down for the second straight year, the General Customs Administration said Friday. The decline was even worse than the 3.9 percent contraction in 2012 and reflected the lingering effects of the Senkaku Islands territorial row.

China’s trade with Japan fell for the first time in three years in 2012 owing to a consumer boycott sparked by territorial dispute in the East China Sea. The figures released Friday also show that China’s overall foreign trade in 2013 grew 7.6 percent from the previous year — an improvement of 6.2 percent growth in 2012 and putting into sharp relief the trade contraction with Japan.

FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more recent analysis and information in our  weekly reports and we provide daily updates and outlooks.

Historical: From 2011 to Present

Highest: 145.69 JPY on Dec 27, 2013

Average: 109.45 JPY over this period.

Lowest: 94.12 JPY on Jul 24, 2012

Major Economic Events for the week of January 6 – 10 actual v. forecast for Yen, the Aussie, the Kiwi and USD

 

Economic Highlights of the coming week that affect the AUD, JPY, NZD and USD