EUR/USD Mid-Session Technical Analysis for July 7, 2017

After posting a higher high earlier in the session, the EUR/USD is trading lower shortly ahead of the U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls report. This puts the Forex pair in a position to form a potentially bearish closing price reversal top, but we won’t know for sure until after the close. Right now all we can say is that the selling is greater than the buying at current price levels.

A bullish Non-Farm Payrolls report will drive up U.S. Treasury yields. This would put pressure on the EUR/USD. A bearish Non-Farm Payrolls report will underpin the EUR/USD and likely fuel an extension of the rally.

Technical Analysis

The main trend is up according to the daily swing chart. A trade through 1.1445 will signal a resumption of the uptrend. The main trend changes to down on a trade through 1.1312.

The short-term range is 1.1445 to 1.1312. Its 50% level or pivot at 1.1379 is currently proving support.

Forecast

Based on the current price at 1.1416 and the earlier price action, the direction of the EUR/USD the rest of the session is likely to be determined by trader reaction to the downtrending angle at 1.1415.

A sustained move over 1.1415 will indicate the presence of buyers. This could drive the Euro into the next downtrending angle at 1.1430. This is the last potential resistance angle before the 1.1445 main top. Taking out this level will signal a resumption of the uptrend.

A sustained move under 1.1415 will signal the presence of sellers. This could lead to a quick break into the steep uptrending angle at 1.1392.

Breaking 1.1392 could trigger an acceleration into a support cluster at 1.1379 to 1.1378. We could see a technical bounce on the first test of this area.

If 1.1378 fails as support then look for an acceleration into the next uptrending angle at 1.1352. This is followed by the next uptrending angle at 1.1332. This is the last potential support angle before the 1.1312 main bottom.

Watch the price action and read the order flow at 1.1415. Trader reaction to this angle will tell us if buyers are still coming in or if sellers are taking control.