Gold Market Outlook: U.S. Jobs Data & Powell’s Speech Set to Drive Next Move

Gold Prices Rise, Nearing Record High as Traders Eye US Jobs Data and Tariff Developments

Gold prices are trading higher on Friday, on track for their best week in six, as traders assess key support levels while awaiting the U.S. non-farm payrolls report and Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s speech. The metal has been consolidating within a critical pivot range of $2,895.29 to $2,910.32, holding above this zone to remain within reach of its all-time high at $2,956.31.

At 12:32 GMT, XAU/USD is trading $2921.90, up $10.80 or +0.37%.

Gold Holds Above Key Support as Treasury Yields Decline

A sustained move above $2,895.29 would keep bullish momentum intact, potentially setting up a test of record highs. However, failure to hold this level could trigger a near-term correction, with initial support at $2,864.26 to $2,843.43. The last significant support before deeper losses stands at $2,832.72.

Further downside could see gold testing its 50-day moving average at $2,799.72, with additional support at $2,770.11 to $2,726.17. Meanwhile, U.S. Treasury yields are ticking lower as investors reduce risk exposure ahead of the jobs data release. Lower yields generally enhance gold’s appeal, as they reduce the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets.

Weaker Dollar, Trade Policy Uncertainty Support Gold

Gold’s gains this week have been underpinned by a weakening U.S. dollar, which is on track for its worst weekly performance since early November. Trade concerns have also fueled demand for safe-haven assets, with the U.S. announcing a temporary tariff reprieve on Canadian and Mexican imports that meet USMCA requirements. This exemption, lasting until April 2, introduces further uncertainty in tariff policy, making it difficult for markets to fully price in trade-related risks.

“Markets are all over the place trying to price tariff impacts, which is really hard to do when the goal post moves, disappears, and morphs by the second,” said Jamie Cox, managing partner at Harris Financial Group.

Traders Await Non-Farm Payrolls and Powell’s Speech

The U.S. non-farm payrolls report, due at 13:30 GMT, is expected to show 170,000 jobs added in February, up from 143,000 the previous month, with the unemployment rate holding at 4%, according to a Dow Jones poll. This data will provide fresh insight into the labor market’s strength and could influence expectations for Fed policy.

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s speech later in the day will also be closely monitored. While markets are pricing in a rate cut by June, Fed Governor Christopher Waller has pushed back against near-term easing. Higher interest rates typically weigh on gold’s appeal, making Powell’s remarks a potential catalyst for market direction.

Market Forecast: Cautiously Bullish

Gold’s ability to hold above $2,895.29 keeps its upside potential intact. A breakout above $2,956.31 could open the door to further gains, while a break below $2,895.29 may lead to a correction toward $2,864.26.

Non-farm payrolls data and Powell’s speech will be key drivers for short-term price action. Lower Treasury yields and trade uncertainty provide support, but stronger-than-expected jobs data could cap gains by reinforcing the Fed’s cautious stance on rate cuts.

More Information in our Economic Calendar.