Gold markets were quiet during the Labor Day holiday as one would expect, due to the lack of volume coming out of the United States.
Gold markets have done very little during the trading session on Monday, and therefore you cannot read anything into the candlestick. Furthermore, it was Labor Day in the United States so a lot of the major volume will have been missing. With that being the case, we have to look at the charts through the prism of a potential double bottom, but that double bottom does not necessarily mean that the trend has changed. The $1750 level is an area where we have seen a lot of noise in the past, and of course, it looks like the 50 Day EMA is starting to reach towards that area as well. In other words, I think you may have a shorting opportunity on signs of exhaustion.
If we break down below the $1700 level, we will then test the absolute low, which could open up massive selling. At that point, we would more likely than not see gold race toward the $1500 level, an area that obviously would attract a lot of psychological attention. Large, round, psychologically significant numbers are a favorite of the market, and there will probably be a ton of options down there as well.
Pay close attention to the interest rates in the United States, because if they continue to rally, it’s likely that we will see the gold market suffer as a result. Ultimately, this is a market that I think will continue to be noisy, but as long as central banks, specifically the Federal Reserve, look to get very tight it’s going to be difficult for gold to take off due to the fact that you can earn a yield by holding paper instead of storing metal.
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Being FXEmpire’s analyst since the early days of the website, Chris has over 20 years of experience across various markets and assets – currencies, indices, and commodities. He is a proprietary trader as well trading institutional accounts.