Natural Gas and Oil Forecast: Prices Slide 15% Amid Recession and Supply Fears

Market Overview

Oil and natural gas prices extended losses in April, with Brent and WTI down 15% and 16% respectively—marking their steepest monthly declines since November 2021. Heightened geopolitical tensions have dampened global demand forecasts, while a surge in U.S. crude inventories (+3.8 million barrels) and potential OPEC+ output hikes are amplifying oversupply fears.

Meanwhile, weakening consumer confidence and shrinking factory activity in major economies are raising recession risks, further pressuring energy markets.

Though recent policy signals hint at easing trade concerns, analysts expect energy prices to remain subdued as supply risks mount and demand uncertainty persists in the face of a fragile global recovery.

Natural Gas Price Forecast

Natural gas futures are attempting a breakout, trading at $3.382 on the 2-hour chart. Price is pressing against the $3.402 pivot zone but remains capped by descending trendline resistance. If bulls clear that hurdle, eyes shift to $3.517, followed by $3.620 and $3.746. Immediate support is seen at $3.254, with deeper cushions at $3.144 and $3.033.

The 50 EMA ($3.273) now sits below price, signaling short-term momentum is turning, though the 200 EMA ($3.473) still looms overhead, maintaining a broader bearish bias.

Until price breaks the trendline convincingly, risk of a pullback remains. A failed breakout could see a retest of the $3.25 zone, while a close above $3.40 may open the door to further gains.

WTI Oil Price Forecast

WTI crude oil is under heavy pressure, trading around $59.58 after breaking below key support at $60.89. That level now acts as immediate resistance, alongside $62.02 and $63.47 above. The breakdown was confirmed by a decisive move beneath both the 50 EMA at $61.71 and the 200 EMA at $62.86, shifting the trend firmly bearish.

The next support sits at $58.98, with deeper downside potential toward $58.02 and $57.02 if the selloff continues. Momentum is building on the downside, and unless we see a reclaim of $60.89, rallies may be short-lived.

For now, the market favors sellers, with lower highs and lower lows reinforcing the current bearish structure.

Brent Oil Price Forecast

Brent crude is trading near $62.50, having broken below a key demand zone around $63.78. That level had acted as support for much of April but has now given way, opening the door to further downside. The 50 EMA ($64.72) and 200 EMA ($66.27) sit well above price, confirming a bearish structure.

With sellers firmly in control, the next support rests around $61.95, followed by $60.16. Unless Brent can reclaim the $63.78–$64.00 area soon, momentum likely favors continued pressure.

The steep, clean breakdown suggests trend-following sellers are active, and dip buyers may want to wait for signs of a base before stepping in.