Gold markets initially gapped to the upside on Monday, kicking off a rather noisy week. That being said, it looks like we are trying to sort out whether or not we can continue to go higher.
Gold markets have been very noisy during the course of the week, gapping to the upside to kick off the week, before showing a lot of noisy behavior. That being said, the market looks as if it is struggling with the $2000 region, and of course when you look to the left on the chart, you can see just how noisy it had been in this region. The market breaking down below the bottom of the candlestick opens up a move toward the $1975 level, perhaps even lower than that.
That being said, a lot of this will come down to what people believe the Federal Reserve will do, as the interest rate situation has a massive influence on gold. All things being equal, I do think that it is probably only a matter of time before you have buyers coming into the picture to pick up “cheap gold”, but ultimately I think it’s going to be more noisy than anything else. For what it is worth, we had bounced from the 50-Week EMA, near the 61.8% Fibonacci level from the most recent rally.
I do think eventually we get this opportunity on a pullback to get long again. However, if we were to break down below the 50-Week EMA, then we could break down to the 100% Fibonacci level, just above the $1800 level. In general, I think you need to be cautious with your position sizing, but I still think that the upside is probably going to be more likely than not the way this market tries to go.
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Being FXEmpire’s analyst since the early days of the website, Chris has over 20 years of experience across various markets and assets – currencies, indices, and commodities. He is a proprietary trader as well trading institutional accounts.