Gold (XAU) Daily Forecast: Dollar Rally from Trump Win—Can Gold Hold $2,643?

Market Overview

Gold prices continue their decline, recently touching $2,650 and falling to an intraday low of $2,643 as the US dollar gains strength following Donald Trump’s election victory.

The dollar’s rise has dampened demand for gold, traditionally a safe-haven asset, as investors pivot toward riskier assets amid renewed market optimism.

“The clarity of a decisive presidential outcome, rather than a contested result, has contributed to the shift in investor sentiment,” said an analyst at OANDA.

Historically, gold performs well in periods of uncertainty and economic instability. However, with Trump’s win, the market is now pricing in expectations of a stronger economy, potentially higher inflation, and rising interest rates—all factors that traditionally support the dollar but put pressure on gold.

The dollar index, which measures the greenback’s strength against a basket of other currencies, has reached its highest level in four months, further reducing the appeal of gold for overseas buyers.

US Economic Data Adds Further Pressure on Gold

Recent economic reports have shown resilience in the US economy, especially in the services sector, adding to gold’s downward trend. The US ISM Services Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) rose to 56.0 in October from 54.9 in September, exceeding forecasts of 53.8.

Additionally, the S&P Global Services PMI registered at 55.0, only slightly below expectations. These figures indicate steady economic growth, decreasing gold’s attractiveness as a hedge against economic weakness.

“The stronger-than-expected services sector data highlights the resilience of the US economy, reducing the urgency for safe-haven assets like gold,” said a senior economist at ING.

Inflation Concerns Could Limit Gold’s Downside

Despite the current bearish trend, some analysts believe Trump’s economic policies could drive inflationary pressures that may eventually support gold prices.

Policies such as increased government spending, tariff hikes, and tax cuts could fuel inflation, potentially clashing with the Federal Reserve’s inflation control efforts.

This may delay further rate hikes or lead to a rate cut slowdown, which could provide relief to gold prices.

In the near term, gold may continue to face pressure as the dollar strengthens. However, if inflation accelerates beyond expectations, investors might return to gold as a hedge, balancing the impact of positive economic data.

Short-Term Forecast

Gold is stabilizing near $2,657, with key support at $2,643. A break below could prompt declines toward $2,625, while resistance at $2,684 and oversold indicators suggest a potential short-term rebound.

Gold Prices Forecast: Technical Analysis

Gold is showing signs of stabilizing after a sharp sell-off, currently trading around $2,657.35, down slightly by 0.09%. The metal is hovering near key support at $2,643.35, with a break below this level potentially triggering further declines toward $2,625.49 and $2,605.20.

On the upside, immediate resistance stands at $2,683.93, followed by $2,697.25. Notably, gold’s 50-day EMA sits above the current price at $2,724.84, reinforcing the bearish outlook.

However, with an oversold reading on technical indicators, a short-term bounce could be on the horizon if prices hold above $2,643.35. For now, any sustained move above this support could attract buyers, but caution is warranted below it.