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Gold (XAU) Daily Forecast: Hovers Under $2,328, Eyes on Upcoming NFP Report

By:
Arslan Ali
Published: Jul 1, 2024, 06:11 GMT+00:00

Key Points:

  • Gold's stability below $2,325 reflects caution ahead of Federal Reserve interest rate decisions.
  • Geopolitical tensions and U.S. political uncertainty weigh on gold price movements.
  • Upcoming U.S. economic reports, including NFP, to influence gold's short-term outlook.
Gold (XAU) Daily Forecast: Hovers Under $2,328, Eyes on Upcoming NFP Report

In this article:

Market Overview

Gold prices hovered below the $2,325 mark during Monday’s Asian session, lacking momentum in a narrow range. The market’s hesitance stems partly from ambiguity surrounding the Federal Reserve’s forthcoming decisions on interest rates.

Despite last Friday’s key U.S. inflation data suggesting potential rate cuts in September and December, recent comments from Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) members hint at a more cautious approach, dampening hopes for immediate rate reductions.

External Pressures and Geopolitical Concerns

The U.S. dollar experienced a pullback from a two-month high, which typically supports gold, a non-yielding asset, by making it cheaper for holders of other currencies.

However, external pressures such as heightened geopolitical tensions and political uncertainties, like the unforeseen results of France’s parliamentary elections and escalating worries over a potential Trump presidency, are influencing the market.

These political factors contribute to fluctuating U.S. Treasury yields, which in turn, restrict any significant gains in gold prices.

Looking Ahead: Data and Sentiment to Guide Prices

As traders look forward to the release of the U.S. ISM Manufacturing PMI and other significant macroeconomic reports, including the Non-Farm Payroll (NFP) this Friday, these indicators will likely shape gold’s short-term trajectory.

The complex interplay of rate expectations, geopolitical developments, and economic indicators will continue to dictate the tempo of gold pricing in the coming days.

Short-term Forecast

Short-term gold prices may see volatility amid mixed signals from the Federal Reserve and geopolitical tensions, with key levels at $2,328 providing near-term direction.

Gold Prices Forecast: Technical Analysis

Gold - Chart
Gold – Chart

Gold (XAU/USD) trades slightly lower today at $2,322.57 on the 4-hour chart, navigating just below a narrow band of resistance and support levels. The pivot point for today stands at $2,328. Resistance levels are pegged at $2,337, $2,345, and $2,355, whereas immediate support falls at $2,316, with further cushions at $2,308 and $2,297.

The 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at $2,323 and the 200-day EMA at $2,328 suggest a tight trading range. A bearish sentiment prevails below $2,328, but a push above this threshold could invite a more bullish outlook for the metal.

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About the Author

Arslan Aliauthor

Arslan, a webinar speaker and derivatives analyst, has an MBA in Finance and MPhil in Behavioral Finance. He guides financial analysis, trading, and cryptocurrency forecasting. Expert in trading psychology and sentiment.

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