Gold (XAU) Price Forecast: Key Pivot at $2910 Holds as Dollar Strength Pressures Prices

Gold Prices Edge Lower as Dollar and Treasury Yields Weigh on Sentiment

Gold prices are slightly lower on Wednesday, trading within yesterday’s range as investors assess key economic factors. The market’s current indecision suggests impending volatility, with traders closely watching technical levels and external catalysts, including U.S. tariffs and Federal Reserve policy.

At 11:35 GMT, XAU/USD is trading $2913.85, down $4.00 or -0.14%.

Gold Trades Near Key Pivot Levels

Gold is straddling a short-term pivot at $2910.32, with price action signaling uncertainty. A sustained move above this level would indicate stronger buying interest, potentially driving the market toward its all-time high of $2956.31 and beyond. However, failure to hold this level could expose downside targets at $2895.29, $2864.26, and $2843.43.

Despite the current pullback, gold remains well above its 50-day and 200-day moving averages, reinforcing an overall bullish structure. A break below last week’s low at $2832.72 could accelerate selling pressure, with the 50-day moving average at $2788.03 acting as a key support level.

Dollar Strength and Treasury Yields Apply Pressure

Gold’s modest decline comes as the U.S. dollar index strengthens and benchmark 10-year Treasury yields rebound from recent lows. Higher yields reduce the appeal of non-yielding gold, making it less attractive to investors seeking returns. According to Ilya Spivak, head of global macro at Tastylive, the move lower is more of a market adjustment following gold’s recent rally rather than a response to a fresh catalyst.

Trade Tariffs and Inflation Risks in Focus

Market participants are also digesting the impact of new U.S. tariffs, which could fuel economic uncertainty. The Trump administration’s 25% tariffs on imports from Mexico and Canada, along with a doubling of duties on Chinese goods to 20%, have triggered retaliatory measures from China and Canada, with Mexico expected to follow suit. These developments could disrupt global trade and contribute to inflationary pressures.

Federal Reserve Bank of New York President John Williams noted that tariffs will likely push inflation higher but sees no immediate need for rate changes. Persistent inflation could force the Fed to maintain its restrictive policy stance, which may weigh on gold’s upside potential in the near term.

Market Outlook: Consolidation with Bullish Bias

Gold’s near-term outlook hinges on price action around the $2910.32 pivot. A decisive break above this level could drive prices toward record highs, while a move lower may lead to buying interest at key support zones. Given gold’s strong technical structure and ongoing geopolitical risks, dips are likely to be viewed as buying opportunities, keeping the broader bullish trend intact. Traders will closely watch upcoming ADP employment data and U.S. nonfarm payrolls for further direction.

More Information in our Economic Calendar.