Gold (XAU) Silver (XAG) Daily Forecast: Fed Minutes & Tariff Plans Shape Market

Market Overview

Gold (XAU/USD) is holding steady above $2,925 as traders position ahead of the Federal Reserve’s FOMC meeting minutes. The market is weighing the likelihood of rate cuts, with a 40% probability priced in for September. A delay in easing due to persistent inflation could impact gold’s trajectory.

Meanwhile, global trade concerns remain in focus. The U.S. administration’s proposed 25% tariff on foreign automobiles, along with increased duties on semiconductor chips and pharmaceuticals, is fueling uncertainty. These policies could push inflation higher, complicating the Fed’s policy outlook.

Analysts suggest that if the Fed signals a cautious stance, gold could face resistance near $2,970. However, if rate-cut expectations strengthen, bullion may extend gains beyond $3,000.

Silver Faces Pressure as Dollar Finds Stability

Silver (XAG/USD) is trading at $32.78 after reaching an intraday low of $32.47. The metal is facing resistance as traders take profits, while a steady U.S. dollar and firm Treasury yields limit upside potential.

The U.S. 2-year Treasury yield is holding at 4.29%, while the 10-year note remains at 4.55%, signaling firm economic conditions. With the Fed minutes approaching, silver’s next move will likely depend on interest rate guidance.

If policymakers hint at an extended pause in rate cuts, silver could retreat toward $31.50. A dovish shift, however, could renew buying interest, pushing prices toward $33.50.

Dollar Weakness, Fed Policy to Shape Metal Markets

The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) is at 107.00, reflecting market uncertainty. Traders remain cautious as they assess the Fed’s approach to inflation. Philadelphia Fed President Patrick Harker has advocated keeping rates steady, while San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly has signaled uncertainty about 2025 rate cuts.

With inflation still a concern, Fed Chair Jerome Powell maintains that strong labor market conditions do not necessitate immediate rate cuts. Markets now await the FOMC minutes for direction, with gold and silver’s next moves hinging on policy signals.

Short-Term Forecast

Gold remains above $2,925, awaiting Fed guidance. A break above $2,938.92 could push prices to $2,970, while downside risks emerge below $2,906. Silver holds firm near $32.46, eyeing $33.29.

Gold Prices Forecast: Technical Analysis

Gold (XAU/USD) is trading at $2,931.83, inching up 0.02%, as buyers attempt to sustain momentum near key technical levels. The pivot point at $2,938.92 serves as a crucial marker—holding above this level could push gold toward $2,962.90 and potentially $2,985.93, signaling continued bullish momentum.

On the downside, immediate support lies at $2,906.27, with further safety nets at $2,877.70.

A break below these levels could trigger a sharper selloff, especially as the 50-day EMA at $2,895.88 provides dynamic support. Meanwhile, the 200-day EMA at $2,800.07 suggests a solid long-term uptrend. Gold remains bullish above $2,938.92, but a failure to hold could shift sentiment.

Silver (XAG/USD) Price Forecast: Technical Outlook

Silver (XAG/USD) is trading at $32.78, down 0.04%, as the metal consolidates near key technical levels. Despite the minor dip, silver remains above the pivot point at $32.46, keeping the bullish trend intact. If buyers hold this level, the next upside targets are $33.29 and $33.78, signaling a potential breakout.

On the downside, support rests at $31.91, with a further cushion at $31.51. A break below these levels could invite stronger selling pressure, especially with the 50-day EMA at $32.25 acting as dynamic support. The 200-day EMA at $31.37 reinforces the broader uptrend, making silver resilient in the long term.

Silver remains bullish above $32.46, but losing this level could shift momentum. Traders should watch for a breakout toward $33.29 or a dip below support to confirm direction.